Joe’s Weather Blog: Another big change on Thursday (MON-1/8)

Good morning…starting the day with a lot of black ice out there…which seems to be just the way this winter is rolling along. This has been a strange one…we started with way too warm air in December, keeping any snow threats at about 0. Then we flipped on the 22nd-23rd to a much colder pattern. Temperatures so cold and the air so dry that aside from some minor light events we couldn’t really get much snow…then as a cold air leaves just in time we get rain (and not a lot locally)…now black ice. Interesting yet snow frustrating (see what I did there). Last night I posted about whether or not you were happy or not about the lack of snow…about 60% wanted more snow. I’m in that category. Right now I’m not encouraged about the prospects.



Forecast:

Today: Sunny and cold this morning. Light winds. We should end the day in the 40s. How far in the 40s though we get will rely on a bit of a breeze to stir the air. We’ll see about that.

Tonight: Cold again with lows in the 20s

Tuesday: More clouds with highs in the 40s

Wednesday: This should still be the warmest day of the week with highs into the 50s but we will be fighting clouds and the winds will make it feel colder.



Discussion:

So let’s get back to a question I asked my FB peeps last night. In regards to this.

By the way…would love it if you would “like/follow” me on FB!

Anyway…it’s amazing to think about that we actually have less snow than last winter…a winter that essentially gave us little snow overall. Not only do we have less snow so far…we have HALF of what we had last winter through 1/7 at least. Come on! Snow frustrating ( I did it again).

I guess we don’t have to worry about doing something like this…

and so it goes…there have been seasons with slower starts…lots of them. As a matter of fact..this is the 27th slowest start to the snow “season” in KC

Note that 5 of those season starts are since the year 2000. I’m not really sure we can include the #1 year (1889) because there is a lot missing data in that compilation.

Also of note…some interesting years…1980 (drought+extreme summer scorcher) and 1978 (so darn cold that winter) and 1989 (so darn cold that winter). There are also some dust bowl years in there too.

Look you folks know I enjoy my snow…I’d be happy if we could get a couple of 4-8″ snowstorms…maybe one 2-4″ storm…then let’s move on to spring. Cold to me is a waste if we don’t have snow…ice to me is a total waste because it does nothing for us whatsoever. I’m really looking for something to talk/write about for several days + leading up to something happening around these parts.

I guess I can talk more about the cold weather that will be coming back into the area after a few days of more comfortable weather.

The change comes Thursday morning. We may very well have some sort of midnight high on Sunday into the 40s before the leading edge of colder Canadian air moves into the region during the morning hours.

The map above is for 12AM Thursday morning…that cold front will mean business because the air behind it will be cold, to say the least.

Temperatures behind the front will be dropping into the teens and the cold air will RUSH into the area during the daybreak hours…and that sends temperatures tanking. Based on the current forecast speed of the front…look at the forecast temperatures around lunch time on Thursday…

Around 20°(!) and with 20 MPH winds (higher gusts)…the wind chills will be near 0° again during the day on Thursday.

Chilly weather is expected on Friday and then another arctic dump of cold weather comes in over the weekend…Sunday morning may tank to sub-zero levels from KC northwards…maybe 5-10 below towards far N MO…could be lower IF there is snow on the ground up there again.

What about the precipitation chances with this rather decent change in the temperatures. Well I’d suspect that we’ll get at least some moisture from this…perhaps a few rain showers ahead of the front…then some sort of wintry mix behind the front. The better accumulating snow chances with this may be more focused towards the I-80 corridor. For us…we may get some snow in the afternoon Thursday. Whatever happens…IF there’s moisture on the roads…we’ll need to watch for freezing during the day.

The system that will be moving our way will be undergoing a weird split right through the middle of the Plains with the better energy dropping and developing more through Texas…and another weakening piece going through the upper Midwest. It’s always something. IF that southern energy would streak towards the NE instead, curl up through southern and eastern MO…slow the forward progress of the front coming through the KC region…then we’d probably be in business for snow…at this point that outcome is highly doubtful.

This is the same storm that the national media will be talking about over the next couple of days…affecting the western part of the country.

Notice the water vapor loop showing the moisture stream up into CA.

This is going to be a big ticket storm for that part of the country. strongest they’ve seen in terms of rain/snow since last winter. That’s good right? Well for some areas…not so much.

There is a lot of concern about the areas that were ravaged by flooding. Without any vegetation too keep the soil in place…debris flows and mud slides are very possible.

The forecast right now shows 2-6″ of moisture…some may get more in the Ocean facing mountains.

Here is a look at radar…

So it’s a good and bad thing out there…the water storage system though really could use it.

That’s it for today…

Our feature photo is of a nice eagle…they’re around some of the wetlands in MO now…a lot of them up towards Smithville into N MO! Courtesy  Mary Jo Seever

Joe

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