Joe’s Weather Blog: Strong front on Thursday means changes again (TUE-1/9)

Good morning KC. Pretty sunrise out there this morning as I start this weather blog. Temperatures are rather reasonable too (for now) and we’re going to sneak in one more day (almost a day and a half) of milder weather before a pretty impressive shot of cold air comes in on Thursday. This will be followed by a stronger push over the weekend that will definitely catch your attention. Sunday morning lows will be near or sub-zero again. With these changes come the potential of light wintry precipitation.



Forecast:

Today: Lots of clouds…some filtered sunshine and “mild” I guess with highs well into the 40s. Breezy weather developing as well

Tonight: Pleasant for January with partly cloudy skies and lows in the 30s. Breezy

Wednesday: Variable clouds and milder with highs well into the 50s. Breezy as well. Windy too with 20-30 MPH gusts possible

Thursday: Whatever we are at before daybreak will be the high for the day. The cold front will immediately drop temperatures…probably down to around 20-25° my the middle of the day and down to near 20° by the end of the day. Winds will gust to about 30 MPH…creating wind chills down into the single digits. There may be some brief rain…followed by some freezing mist/drizzle then perhaps some snow too. Some roads in the region may become slick as well. How impactful this will be to the pavement though is a question.



Discussion:

The weather is boring to me right now…yet interesting at the same time. Thursday especially will be chockful of changes. The weekend overall looks just plain cold and today I’m questioning the timing of the thaw that I’ve been counting on after the 16-17th or so. There are some milder days down the road…just not sure how sustained it will be right now.

Also there does not appear to be major precipitation heading this way…mostly piddly stuff of all different kinds.

That’s the weather in a nutshell.

I thought this morning, before we dive into the scenarios for Thursday…I’d talk about the winter as a whole so far. We’ve had 2 different phases…the warm phase from December 1st-22 or so…and the cold phase from the 23rd through the 7th. Now we’re just sort of in between but we’re going back into the cold weather on Thursday. For the purpose of this discussion…let’s go with the definition of meteorological winter…starting on 12/1.

Let’s start with a look at where we are, comparing temperatures this winter to previous winters…

We are running the 31st coldest through yesterday. Since records go back to the 1880s (about 130 years) or so…this would roughly be in the top quarter of coldest winters. It should be noted that we’ll be dropping lower after the next 3 days of temperatures are factored in…even Thursday will be considered near average (in the end) because we;ll be well into the 40s for early morning highs.

From a moisture standpoint…we’re essentially getting nickel and dimed with rain/snow events.

This is the 9th driest “winter” so far. Certainly noteworthy. My goodness…look at 2003.

From a regional standpoint…see the map below…the color table sticks though…essentially that entire map region is below average

 

From a moisture standpoint…it’s not good around these parts.

 

The core of the driest region right now…is towards the east of the KC area…and is slowly being whittled away…and may get some decent snows on Friday.

So that is where we are…now about Thursday.

As talked about this past weekend…a strong but still seasonal front for January will be barreling through the region on Thursday morning. Warm air will be ahead of the front with winter air behind the front. The change will be abrupt and jarring. Winds will rapidly increase and gust to around 30 MPH as the morning evolves. IF there is any light rain in the area…there may be a period of freezing mist/drizzle during the morning as well. How impactful this will be though is a question because there may be so much cold/dry air coming in so quickly it’s very possible that the moisture will be shunted away as the dry air moves through and starts drying things. it’s worth monitoring but NOT worth cancelling any plans yet. Of note could be a small-scale (coverage) accumulating snow across NW MO and SW IA/SE NE for Thursday…that will need to be watched…several inches possible. It would have to happen fast…because the moisture and the cold air combined doesn’t happen for long.

We should recover into the mid-upper 20s or so on Friday ahead of a stronger blast that will be moving in Saturday. Of interest, although not to exciting to me yet, as a wave aloft coming through the region with the arctic air dumping in at the same time. Sometimes you can get something “weird” with that.

OK I’m going to stop there…I’ve been pulled in 3 directions this morning trying to write this blog up and trying to find some specific data I want to show…but I’m having a tough time finding what I need. Some great sunrise photos this morning including this one from the folks at Olathe Health

Joe

 

 

 

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