Joe’s Weather Blog: Cool…cold..mild…colder (FRI-1/26)
Good afternoon…50 MPH wind gusts out there this afternoon…all in a days worth around these parts…although perhaps more common in the March/April time frame than January time frame. All this wind just dries things out more…and really aside from some showers tonight…probably SE of KC proper…no real moisture is coming anytime soon. So we wait and remember the last big storm that actually delivered significant moisture to the area was back on October 21st-22nd…some 97 days ago…
Tonight: Some scattered showers may develop towards the SE of KC…odds favor out more towards Warrensburg>Paola and eastwards line. A cold front will be coming through the region around 9PM or so…and that will sweep the mildest air away over the weekend. Winds will switch to the NW…still gust though to around 25 MPH overnight before dropping off towards daybreak.
Saturday: Mostly sunny and not as mild with highs in the 50-55° range. Less wind too! More of a SW/W wind at 10-20 MPH
Sunday: Mostly cloudy…sort of a weird day where temperatures may max out around lunch and then either hold steady or drop a few degrees in the afternoon as a push of chillier air moves into the area. There may be a few snowflakes/snow showers out there too I guess…something to follow I guess
I thought, in honor of FanFest this weekend…that I’d go over the climatology for Opening Day 2018…which is March 29th for the Royals here in KC. When I saw the schedule for that…I “gulped”.
Well there is some good news about 3/29…yes it’s March…and we know all too well that March can be VERY fickle around these parts. So I looked at the climatology of 3/29…and was somewhat encouraged.
- The average high that day is around 58°. With the game scheduled for 3PM…that’s about the “average” temperature at that hour.
- The average low is 38°…so yes there may be frost for the VERY early tailgaters to get though
- We’ve had about 9 days with highs in the 30s…30 days with highs in the 40s…30 days with highs in the 50s…36 days with highs in the 60s(!)…20 days with highs in the 70s and 5 days with highs in the 80s. I guess you can say, based on that, that there’s about twice as good a chance of highs in the 30s than highs in the 80s
- The GOOD news is that there is a 70% chance that highs will be 50°+
- The BAD news is that, on average there is a 1 in 3 chance of some rain/snow that day over .01″ and a 17% chance that we get more than 1/10″ of moisture.
Here is more of a breakdown…
Here’s hoping for mild weather and no moisture.
As far as the weather a little closer in time frame…changeable yes…but still nothing overly exciting for moisture wanters (getting mroe and more of those) and snow lovers (it’s ugly out there).
A cold front is moving towards us this afternoon. You can see it by looking at the wind direction changes on the 2PM surface map…towards central KS/NE. Note how the winds switch towards the NW from the SW…that is the front.
There is also some moisture down south racing northwards…while our dew points are in the mid 30s…dew points towards E OK are into the mid 40s and that moisture may sneak into areas, especially SE of KC. Ahead of the front…and because of a tight air pressure gradient…the winds are howling
You can see how the clouds are forming as well…there is some mid level cooling coming into the region this afternoon helping the cause. KC in the following picture is towards the top of the image
So with the front…plus some shallow moisture…there may be some scattered showers developing after 7PM or so towards the SSW of KC…that would move NNEwards…perhaps affecting our SE part of the viewing area.
The weekend will be cooler but actually rather nice on Saturday and cooler on Sunday. Colder air filters in come Monday however and highs will struggle in the 30s. Sunday is somewhat interesting as a fast moving mid level disturbance will be coming into the area. You can really notice it when looking at the temperatures from 10,000 feet and upwards…it get’s pretty cold up there pretty quickly in the late afternoon/evening. I wonder, with surface temperatures in the 40s and it being colder than average upstairs…IF we may be able to generate some weird showers (perhaps rain>snow) in the afternoon/evening. Worth watching.
Aside from that…there are more ups and downs coming next week…higher temperatures on TUE into WED perhaps…then somewhat colder into the end of next week. There will be some nasty cold air building up in Canada and northwards that may come down after the 4th or 5th it looks like. That stuff needs to be watched… because while some data has the worst staying towards the Lakes and Northern Plains…it won’t take much to slide it farther southwards so we may be talking more arctic air during the 1st 10 days of the month. I can’t get too excited about the snow on the GFS/Canadian for next Thursday at this point. Been there…done that.
Final note…let’s keep an eye on how January actually ends up. As of yesterday we dropped to only 2.1° below average…and today will chop that in half perhaps…
There is perception that this winter (12/1-today) has been very cold…but the data is really starting to argue otherwise. What happens in FEB will make or break the colder/warmer/average winter forecasts.
The cold has been extreme on those individual days…but it’s really getting balanced out by warmer days too now.
Today will make for 13 above average days this month and 13 below average days. In December it was 14 below average days and 17 above average days. I smell a What Your Weather App Can’t Tell You graphic for the weekend!
Our feature photo comes from Mark McDaniel showing the training by the KC Fire Department on the ice.