Joe’s Weather Blog: Another round of cold weather on the way (WED-1/31)

We’re almost 2/3rds done with “meteorological” winter and we’re down to the last day of January…and while snow lovers haven’t been too thrilled with the last 2-3 months…for those who enjoy the cold…it’s been a decent winter for you. The perception of this being a cold winter is certainly there but again from a statistical standpoint…this is an average winter so far…we were .6° above average in December…and we’re going to end up about .7 or ,8° below average in January…so together we’re just about .1 or .2° below average. February will be the make or break month in our winter…and it appears that we’re going to start out with colder weather for the 1st 10 days of the month (mostly).



Forecast:

Today: Variable clouds with highs around 50-55° from I-70  south to 45-50°  on the northside. There is a wind shift coming through today so the winds today won’t be as strong as yesterday. We had gusts to around 40 MPH yesterday…even last night there were some pretty decent winds blowing through the area till about 12AM or so…

Tonight: Mostly cloudy and cooler with lows down into the 20s around daybreak

Thursday: Cooler with highs near 30° but it will feel colder with the winds blowing…especially in the AM.

Friday: Cold start with single digit lows and highs in the 30s



Discussion:

So here we are 2/3’s done with meteorologic winter and aside from the fluctuating temperatures there hasn’t been a lot going on. The cold has been impressive when it’s been cold…but yet we’ve balanced out the cold weather. Today will be the 12th in the last 13 days with temperatures above average for KC…not too bad after that cold start to the month.

The map for January is pretty interesting…notice the blues…showing below average temperatures…most prevalent across the eastern 2/3rds of the country. The western 1/3 though has been warm and very dry. Record highs have been common in AZ and especially CA for weeks…

Over the last 60 days…(color palete change :( )

There’s actually been warmer than average temperatures around the KC area…especially SE of the metro and west of KC too.

Note as well the warmth out in CO…

From a moisture standpoint…not so good. This won’t be changing much either.

Those red contours are showing moisture only about 25% or even less than average over the last 60 days. Looking even farther back…going through the last 90 days…it’s even worse.

Here the red shading shows 50% or less of average moisture (rain/snow)

Some areas have done well though…mainly in the Northern Rockies.

For snow…not good locally or really regionally as shown by this map via IA State.

Nationally…look at this animation showing the accumulated snows…a different way of looking at things…pretty cool actually courtesy vividmaps.com. Oh my goodness the SE part of the country.

Out west though…towards the Sierra’s this is not so good. They are having a tough time with moisture…and snow. Thank goodness they got all that moisture last winter…it filled the various reservoirs and those are still in good shape.

You can see this better unitizing the SWE (snow water equivalent) of where things stand out there…and its not good for many…the reds far outnumber the blue dots…showing significant deficits compared to surpluses.

There is a need of moisture and let me share with you some of the longer range forecasts…and you can see how things aren’t going to change all that much.

Last night’s GFS run through about 10 days…note the “emptiness” on top of the region.

The EURO is more or less similar…

As far as the forecast for the area goes…there may be some snow in the area on Sunday…but it won’t amount to too much and would be one of those powdery-low moisture type snows that has been prevalent this winter,

I’m typing this blog while attending a seminar with the KC IWT. IWT stands for Integrated Warning Team. It’s a combination of my colleagues in TV from the other stations, Emergency Managers from the region…and other folks from the National Weather Service in Pleasant Hill. all told there are some 125 folks here…with our goal being better communication with our customers…and that’s YOU!

Have a great day. Our feature photo comes from Margaret Doleshal from Piper, KS…of a pretty sunrise from this morning.

Joe

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