Joe’s Weather Blog: Brief cold respite then cold again + more snow? (WED-2/7)

Good afternoon…it didn’t feel too bad out there today, despite the temperatures being in the 20s…the lack of wind and full sunshine has been a plus to providing a bit of a better day out there. The snows from last night north of KC mainly have now turned into a full fledged winter storm in parts of the east where heavy snow is falling in the interior northeast part of the country. For us…we actually have a nice but windy Thursday ahead then we tank once again heading into the weekend. There is what seems to be a very similar set-up for perhaps some snow in the region as well…but I’m not overly excited about it right now.



Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear and not as cold with lows hanging on around 20°. Temperatures may actually warm up a few degrees as we head towards daybreak.

Thursday: Mostly sunny and more seasonable. Highs into the 40s but the winds will be gusting to around 30 MPH making it feel chiller

Friday: A cold front will be coming through during the morning. So we may start reasonable with lows around 30° then see falling temperatures with blustery conditions in the afternoon down through the 20s. Wind chills dropping into the teens



Discussion:

Well the snow from yesterday was a northern MO event…I saw some flurries at my house later in the evening but we couldn’t even by a dusting of snow from this…

I’m not even sure I want to write about it anymore actually…just one of those events that held some potential but never got it’s act together for KC…even up north…there was enough dry air chewing at the snow as it was falling…that northern MO couldn’t crack 3″ worth it appears.

Another good thing about clear weather today…you can get a good feel for the snow on the ground via the visible satellite picture.

This is one of my favorite things to show you. You can make out the terrain, the lakes, the rivers and so many cool things. IA Especially is neat to look at…almost like veins in a human body…you can see the various rivers etc up there.

If you’re wondering where the “storm” that was never a storm to begin with for the Plains went…well here it is towards the eastern part fo the country. Radar via Penn State.

That’s a good snow thumping across the interior NE and parts of New England.

For a snow-lover in the Plains…we shed a tear or 1000

Hey it could be worse…at least we’ve had 5+”…look at Columbia, MO. Then on the far right side of the map…Erie, PA with almost 150″!

This is the 22nd least snowy winter (so far) in KC weather history…I’ve tossed a couple of winters out because of missing data…

What’s interesting to me about the above chart…is that 6 of the winters since 2000 are in the top 22 through today.

As far as the weather goes…overnight we’re going to see more of a southern wind shift…that will allow milder air to start moving towards the area…with the snow on the ground, it will initially be a muted warm-up on Thursday but with enough wind…we should really see a pop into the 40s in the afternoon I think. Also of note the winds just above the surface, a couple of thousand feet up will be cranking away at 40-50 MPH or so…so it may get rather windy in the afternoon.

Then things change on Friday as another strong front comes barreling through the region during the morning. We won’t be that cold at daybreak, but we should be a lot colder with blustery conditions for the afternoon rush. Here is the forecast map for Friday at Noon…the cold front will be on top of us (if it comes through a bit earlier we may get colder quicker on Friday).

This will be another stout front…and temperatures over the weekend will again be well below average.

Speaking of which…so far this month we’re running almost 9° or so below average.

Then on Saturday into Sunday we’re going to have to watch for some snow chances. The GFS and even to some extent the NAM models are somewhat aggressive with this. The GFS is definitely doing this quite a bit…the NAM model though hasn’t really. The EURO doesn’t do a lot with this though except sort of do what seems to be what every other snow risk has done around here for the last couple of months…and odds are it may be more correct. Northern MO towards the IA border may get 2-4″ or so of fluffy and powdery snow…but locally it’s tough right now to imagine more than our, now very typical, dusting to 2″ type event.

Again there will be a fight happening with low level dry air…winds aloft from the west-south-west and tracking tiny little waves that may or may not do anything while fighting the dry low level air in place in the region.

The latest EURO has this idea for the next 10 days in terms of total moisture…

I mean come on…and this dryness, especially in central and western KS into parts of western OK and down through TX is now really getting to be more and more of a concern out there. The last time Amarillo had .01″ or more of moisture was back on October 19th!

The following map showing the amount of precipitation isn’t perfect…but I think you get the idea…this is over the last 90 days…and look towards SW KS/W OK and the TX Panhandle

Not good and odds are it won’t be getting any better for them at least..and probably for us to into the next few weeks. I want to leave you with this 10 day forecast of the upper air pattern (the colors are the wind speeds or isotachs)…this is for the 17th of FEB…via Pivotal Weather and is from the GFS Ensemble model.

It really is virtually the same thing we’ve seen all winter long…really since late October I think. NW/WNW flow is not a flow that generates storm systems and big rain/snow makers for us.

Let’s go even farther down the road…to the 23rd…

See the similarities…why expect anything different as an outcome then? That’s what I’m wondering about this afternoon.

On that note…have a great Wednesday and today’s feature photo comes from…Amber Richeson down towards Spring Hill

Joe

 

 

 

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1 Comment

  • Richard

    No words except wow another low snow winter.
    This year plenty cold enough for snow but the air is too dry and the storms just decide to bypass KC before strenghtening.
    And last year we had the moisture at times, but too warm for snow.
    It’s frustrating Joe. Very disapponting.