Joe’s Weather Blog: Some useful web-sites (SUN-3/4)
Good afternoon. Another mild and windy day in the area with a mixture of sun and clouds. We had a bit of a surge in moisture but that moisture was rather slim through the atmosphere and the strong winds have helped to mix some of that moisture out…so as a result we’re back into the 60s this afternoon. This has been my low cloud conundrum that I’ve been talking about for the last few days. As I mentioned this morning, where the clouds would be more prevalent…it would be in the 50s and where the sun was more prevalent…60s. The model data has been way too aggressive with this moisture in terms of the thickness. Yesterday while at the Douglas County Symposium I told the crowd that this situation was going to happen today…where the models were saying 40s but I felt a warmer solution was more correct.
Tonight: Scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder are possible. Odds are this may be more late tonight. Temperatures will remain mild with lows well into the 40s. Windy with gusts to 30 MPH possible
Monday: Any rain ends with the passage of a cold front near or just after daybreak. Temperatures will remain in the 50s for most of the day. Windy with gusts to 35 MPH possible (winds from the west). Skies should be mostly sunny after the clouds move away.
Tuesday: Turning cloudy as the day moves along and very windy with gusts to 30+ MPH possible
A two part discussion…
Yesterday I did a well received, I think, talk to a group a the Douglas County Severe Weather Symposium. This is one of my favorite groups to talk too as it goes all day long and there are some great speakers to learn more about severe weather. For those who have an interest in storms, especially but not exclusively, if you’ve completed an initial severe weather spotter class, but just want to learn more and get your weather geek on I highly recommend it for next year. It’s typically held the 1st or second Saturday in March.
My talk revolved around web-sites that folks can go to, that I utilize often to get an idea what’s happening out there and what may happen down the road. They’re not secret sites…there are a few though that are a bit of a deeper dive into things however.
My goal with this was for folks to write down, or better yet, take pictures of some of the web addresses and then take a look at them at home, where they could play around and sort of get an idea at the data we look at. I received several emails about those sites asking me put them out there again because of camera glitches or bad shots etc. So let’s go ahead and get that out there now…I didn’t want to use the actual slides for this so that it wold be easier for you to cut and paste the sites into your browser.
If you have any additional questions let me know…and thanks again for being a great audience. Anytime the crowd laughs with you and not at you…it’s a good day! ;)
A cold front will be slicing through the region tomorrow morning. Ahead of the front some moisture is working northwards today…but it’s not “quality” moisture. It’s not overly deep through the atmosphere and it’s been getting mixed out with the strong SSE winds today. There is more moisture on the MO side than the KS side today…and I think that’s where the better chances of showers and a few rumbles might be overnight.
The 2PM surface map shows the effects of the clouds on the temperatures.
50s on the MO side and near 70° out towards Topeka again. It’s also cooler farther south towards SW MO and E OK (50s) a result of that cloud cover.
Note the contrast of the temperatures (in red) between western KS (near 80°) and northwestern NE (near 30°). That is a developing storm (soon to be blizzard) for the upper Midwest. The cold air will slowly work into the developing area of low pressure tonight and then sweep through the Plains on Monday morning. This will happen pretty fast in the weather world.
As this occurs some shower and storm activity is possible in the region but whatever forms will be zipping through at warp speed so the rain amounts should be under 1/4″ for most, with some upside on the MO side towards the east of the KC Metro I think.
This storm will be a doozy for the upper Midwest although where the rain/snow line sets up will be interesting as that may lead to some busted forecasts up there. Here is the current map showing the air pressures. The black lines are isobars or lines of equal pressure. In time on the upper right side, you’ll see a strong area of low pressure moving into the upper Midwest.
Blizzard warnings are in effect for parts of SD (in orange) and winter storm warnings are in effect for the rest of the Dakotas (in pink)
Just a classic Plains blizzard.
With this system passing by to the NW of KC…that will put our area in the dreaded dry slot of air that wraps into the storm’s circulation. As a result after the front comes through in the morning…we rapidly dry out and also get very windy. IF that circulation was farther south, let’s say into southern IA instead of southern MN…I’d be more worried about wind gusts in excess of 50-60 MPH…
But with the circulation farther north…odds are more that we’ll have 25-40 MPH gusts…from the west to the east.
Anyways…quite the blizzard up there.
So a blizzard for them..a blizzard back east and massive wind storm. What about us?
Oh and the Northeast may get another Nor’easter WED>THU with significant snows along the coastal areas.
For us…colder Tuesday into Thursday morning with moderation THU>FRI. Saturday is a bit iffy because of a likely area of low pressure tracking nearby. Where exactly it goes though remains to be seen. Most data today has it passing so far south we barely get into anything aside from chillier weather in a week or so. We’ll see. March is March around here and the Plains are notorious for big March storms.
That’s it for today…for those who were at the seminar yesterday…thanks again for the company and welcome to the weather blog.
Our feature photo comes from Thurman Hoskins of a pretty sunrise from the other day.