Joe’s Weather Blog: 100 or miles from a snowstorm (SUN-3/11)

Good afternoon…gray and drab weather int eh KC region today with a few sprinkles out there. I was promising temperatures some 15-20° chillier today and that’s what has happened. Haven’t heard of any flakes of snow nearby, although their was a pretty impressive area of moderate to heavy snow that moved through north central MO and dropped into central and eastern MO. Accumulations were in the 1-4″ range of heavy wet snow with large snowflakes. Another system that passed KC by and did very little…so what else is really new.



Forecast:

Tonight: Cloudy skies and chilly with temperatures near 30°

Monday: Clouds in the AM, but clearing in the PM. Not a bad day overall…a bit breezy in the afternoon with highs into the 50° range with enough sunshine.

Tuesday: Chillier with highs in the 40s

Wednesday: Cold in the morning…20-25° then more seasonable in the afternoon with highs into the 50s



Discussion:

Well let’s start out with what we’re missing…again.

From Tori Hague in Mercer, MO

Meanwhile from Greg Hubbard in Macon, MO…

and up in New Boston, MO…almost 3″ via Stephannie Bivens Mills which is in eastern Linn Co, MO about 140 miles away!

Quite the late season snow up there…

As usual everything shoved along towards eastern MO…and basically we’re just left with a trailing push of cold air and clouds…the 1PM surface map shows 30s very prevalent in the region.

All those dark blue circles and red circles represent a lot of low clouds…low ceilings to be precise.

Here is a look at the satellite pictures this afternoon.

In time on Monday we’ll start clearing out…and the afternoon should be pretty good.

Really the week overall looks fine with a definitive warming trend coming starting Wednesday but much more noticeable THU>FRI perhaps…although there may be a storm of sorts moving through the Plains. The EURO has thrown a curveball today with higher rain chances on Friday followed by somewhat cooler weather on Saturday. This is a pretty significant departure from it’s most recent runs.

What it’s doing seems a bit suspect to me. There’s going to be another significant storm across the western US over the next few days. They’re trying to do a late season catch-up on the lack of moisture they saw all winter long…here is a look at how much moisture they may see over the next week or so.

Remember how we talked about this western ridge ALL winter long…well it’s been mostly absent for quite some time now and as a result they’re getting much needed moisture after being dry for so long this winter.

This was the snow situation a few weeks ago in the Sierras…

and this morning…

Nice growth…they want more I’m sure…

So the EURO model is breaking of a significant wave and moving it through the Plains…take a look at how the GFS model and the EURO model shows the set up at around 18,000 feet on Friday morning…

Push the slider right for the GFS and left for the EURO…

Note how the EURO is showing that upper level circulation in KS while the GFS says no way really.

As a result there is a big difference in how the lower levels are set up…let’s go from 18,000 feet to 5,000 feet up and now take a look at the temperatures at that level…notice how much colder the EURO model is for the Plains with a functional storm…while the GFS is much warmer with a weak storm.

Finally by the time to get to the ground the EURO would have rain and thunderstorms in the region Friday morning while the GFS not so much. On top of that with this portrayal from the EURO for 7AM Friday…and a surface low sliding towards the south of KC…that puts us in a chillier NE flow of air as well…

The GFS has a surface low passing by with maybe a few showers and no real cold air to be found moving in. Should that pan out we’d be in good shape for St Patrick’s Day.

So something is going on there…I don’t think the EURO is handling that wave coming out from the Pacific system correctly. I think IF there is an upper level wave there it will slide towards the NW of KC…so I’m favoring a milder solution for the end of the week.

There may very well be some fleeting rains in there somewhere but I want to let that play out for a few more days before I get too excited about those prospects. Goodness knows I need to get some fertilizer down on the grass heading into Spring…so we’ll see,

Our feature photo comes from Peggy Van Bebber. Can you see the cardinal?

Joe

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