Joe’s Weather Blog: Bizarro Friday or is it Bizzarro (sp?) (THU-3/15)

What a fabulous Thursday in the area…temperatures are already above yesterday’s high of 65° and with a few more hours of sunshine to go…and a decent wind stirring up the atmosphere this may well be the warmest day since last October 21st when we hit 75°. Today the warmth is widespread…tomorrow some of you will need a winter coat, while others will be fine in shorts. It’s a walk into the bizarre world of temperature forecasting.



Forecast:

Tonight: Clear then turning mostly cloudy with showers and some rumbles possible by 3AM. Lows tonight in the 40s by daybreak.

Friday: What a day.  More in the discussion. 40s>70s. Some AM rain…then showers. Rain amounts not so great in the KC metro with higher amounts possible (1/2-1″) farther east on the MO side.

Saturday: Gray and chilly for the parade…probably closer to 40° with 30s for wind chills…then perhaps a few breaks in the clouds in the afternoon with highs 45-50°

Sunday: Nicer with highs in the 60° range



Discussion:

Tomorrow’s blow will be an update on the expansive drought situation that is becoming more and more of a story, especially on the KS side. I should get that posted by 9AM or so.

Meanwhile after a delightful afternoon…the focus will shift to a developing storm system that will move through the Plains and it’s precise movement and location in relation to KC tomorrow will determine the warmth potential. The closer it comes to the north side the more warmth for the entire KC area…the farther south it is..the more likely KC will be cooler.

Regardless there should at least be some rain…but right now it doesn’t look to be a lot.

Let’s look at our developing storm system…the map below shows the isobars…which are lines of equal pressure. Winds flow into areas of low pressure and out of areas of high pressure. The developing surface low is located in eastern CO as I type this…it will move along and north of the I-70 corridor tomorrow.

Take a look at how the NAM model handles this…

By 1PM Friday the well formed surface low will be in Northern KS…near Concordia

Via NEXLAB

Notice how the warm air is wrapping into the storm from the south…notice as well the chillier air across N MO (upper 30s).

Now let’s look at the 7PM forecast for Friday.

The surface low is passing on the south side of the KC area…farther north…and we’re in the warmer air.

Now at 1AM Saturday.

The surface low is now towards Columbia, MO…and chillier air has overtaken the entire region again.

Here is the hi-res NAM model showing the potential high temperature contrast in the region tomorrow afternoon.

From the 40s on the northside to well into the 60s on the south side with some 70s not too far away. Meanwhile northern MO will be closer to 40° or so.

So what about the rain…we should be in line for quite a bit with this scenario…surface low close by…warm front in area…cold front coming through…low level winds above the surface cranking away…and yet we may well struggle to get more than 1/4″ or so.

I was ready to put down some fertilizer this afternoon…I may wait. It needs a solid 1/2″ to water into the ground…not sure where I live that will happen. Some will get that…and the better chances are on the MO side where thunderstorms may help the cause more during the morning hours. With that said though…the low level jet stream will be rather potent…and that ingredient to this looks to be an important player in developing showers/storms in the wee hours of Friday morning…so yes we should get some rain. I’m just not sure, aside from some quick-ish downpours…how much we’ll actually end up getting because the mid level winds will be pushing this stuff towards the NE rather quickly.

Interesting to note…IF you were to take this weather set-up and push it farther into the Spring season (which starts on Tuesday)…it would be a potent(!) severe weather set-up with tornadic thunderstorms a major concern.

There is another system on Monday BUT if I see any farther south trend on the storm…I’m not even sure we’ll get much rain out of that. As a matter of fact the new EURO model gives us little to none…while areas farther south towards the Lakes get more moisture. Something to pay attention too…

Man tomorrow is a temperature nightmare…IF you’re driving from Paola (70s) to KCI (closer to 50° to St Joe (45°-ish) it will be an interesting day.

OK that’s it for today…our feature photo comes from April Clark in Lenexa…taken last week.

Joe

 

 

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