Joe’s Weather Blog: Easter Bunny may not be too happy with me (FRI-3/30)

Good afternoon…at least the sunshine is finally out in the KC region…the satellite picture is a joy to look at today…as there are finally mostly clear skies in the region. Unfortunately it will be somewhat short-lived. Colder weather will again move into the region. Saturday will be the transition day and Sunday will be miserable…and I’m not too thrilled with what I’m seeing beyond that into Tuesday at least. The colder weather will be a continuing issue for days to come it appears. I’m filling in for Mike tonight so I’ll be updating you starting at 5/6PM on FOX 4 News.



Forecast:

Tonight: Fair skies and becoming breezy. Temperatures will fall then level off in the 40s overnight

Saturday: Variable clouds…there may be a few scattered showers around in the morning hours as well but overall it’s going to be dry afternoon I think. A cold front is going to move into the area during the day. The winds will switch from the north to the south at 15-25 MPH later in the morning and into the afternoon especially. Highs will try and warm up through the 50s…perhaps to near 60° before temperatures level off and start to fall somewhat into the later afternoon.

Sunday (Easter): Snow likely. There is the potential for a dusting to up to 3″ depending on the surface temperatures. IF we’re closer to 35° accumulations may only occur on the grass. IF colder (and some model data shows colder solutions) there may be issues on the road as well…also depending on the timing of the snow…these issues may be bigger than what you would think in early April. Highs only near 32°



Discussion:

I get concerned about the Easter Bunny in KC on Sunday…saw this…about right. (via Pinterest)

The EURO for the last several days has been showing the snow potential…the other models every so often had something happening, but not consistently. Today all the models are showing snow. An analysis of the forecast for the atmosphere for Sunday afternoon shows an air mass that would be supportive for snow to make it to the ground.

There are obvious issues. I’m really not even worried about the time of the year. April 1st (insert you’re own April Fools Day joke). IF it wants to snow…it can still snow. The issue is accumulations. We’ve had accumulations in April 39 times of more than a trace. As a matter of fact we’ve had more than 30 occurrences of 1″ or more of snow…

All told…we’ve had 64 times in April with accumulations of more than a Trace of snow in KC. Think about it though…that’s 30 days in April…multiplied by records that go back to roughly 1890. That’s some 3,840 April days…or less than 2%…this would certainly be something rare I think you can say.

The set up is what we’ve seen time after time this winter in my opinion. Cold front comes through tomorrow…colder air deepens into Sunday morning and a fast moving wave comes out of the western Plains and creates snow. It’s fighting dry air initially…then it overcomes the dry air and initially light snow increases. Sort of weirdly reminiscent of the fast moving disturbance that we saw in early February that dumped 2-3″ of snow in a couple of hours.

The wave coming in will be running into initially low surface dew points…so with temperatures at daybreak near 30° or so…then we start snowing into the “dry air” the temperatures drop a few degrees into the upper 20s or so. Theis set’s up the potential of snow accumulations not only on the grass but also, if it’s snowing hard enough…on the roads as well. The biggest impact to this may be after daybreak Sunday into late Sunday afternoon.

Right now I’m probably going with the idea of a dusting to 3″ of accumulations. The ground will initially help the melting process somewhat, especially IF the snow waits till later in the morning…perhaps the temperatures could be above freezing at the onset…but as the snow falls more and more…we should see a drop in the temperatures…and in time the ground may lose the fight.

Road conditions will be trickier. Pavement temperatures may help the cause, although bridges and overpasses will get colder faster. Slushy accumulations on the roads are certainly possible. Slick travel conditions are also increasing likely. IF you’re taken the windshield scraper out of the car…you may want to put it back in the car.

It would be ironic…if this puts us over 10″ of snow for the winter…we’d need 4″+ to do that though…that might be too much to ask for a fast moving wave to generate. There are some caution flags though…this isn’t exactly the strongest wave zipping through the area + it’s going to be moving really fast so the time of accumulating snow isn’t too long. Again it will really depend on how fast it comes down and IF it starts early enough. So still not set in stone BUT…I want you to be aware of the potential so you’re not surprised.

Yesterday I talked about the snowiest Easters in KC…it did snow a couple of years ago in 2016 on Easter Sunday…that one sneaked by me. Meanwhile on the actual date itself…the colder air may approach a record as well. Here are the coldest 4/1’s in KC weather history.

Meanwhile in terms of snow on 4/1 in climate history…take a look…it has happened before.

12 times in about 128 years.

That’s actually not a insignificant snow record in 1970 for 4/1.

Oh and Tuesday needs to be watched as well for perhaps a rain/snow event as well.

April is the time to start talking about severe weather…not winter weather. Strange times. Hard freezes will also occur next week (and beyond I think) so hold off on planting.

Our feature photo comes from Todd Bryan…yesterday was miserable for a baseball game…odds are Sunday’s game will be postponed…but at least late in the day there were some attempts of sunshine.

Joe

 

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