Joe’s Weather Blog: Cold and more sleet/snow? (WED-4/4)

A very good but cold morning out there…at least the sunshine is out…and tomorrow (Thursday) still looks like a phenomenal day with highs in the 60-65° range. We deserve that…and it’s what I said would happen for Thursday in last weekend’s forecast. One good day this week…and it’s Thursday. After that though…back to the crummy winter weather that seems to have become more of the common this month that anything else.



Forecast:

Today: Mostly sunny and cold with highs near 40°

Tonight: Mostly clear and chilly with lows dropping to near 30°. Temperatures will steady out overnight and may start going up before daybreak. Winds increasing and will make it feel chillier

Thursday: Partly cloudy and much warmer (although in the big scheme of things…really just average) with highs in the 60s

Friday: Dry initially with increasing clouds then sleet/snow possible later in the afternoon. Some accumulating snow possible late Friday afternoon>Friday evening.



Discussion:

So far the low this morning is down to 17° at KCI…this ties the 3rd coldest low temperature ever recorded in KC. It’s actually colder than the devastating hard freeze from about 10 years ago. You may remember that one…on 4/8/07. That devastated the Rose bushes at Loose Park and elsewhere. They had all bloomed early because of the warm Winter/March and were blossomed out if I remember correctly. It took years for them to recover.

Thankfully the weather has been so cold for so long in the last month or so…that the vegetation is far behind schedule compared to other early Springs around these parts (and recent years it seems). So that same impact won’t be felt again this time through.

Here are the coldest lows in the month of April…

This also ties 4/5/1920 as the coldest for so late in the season as well.

A lot of folks are getting grumpy with this weather…between the cold…the late winter/spring snows…the gray skies…it’s not been pleasant around these parts.

Interestingly…since 3/1 this is the 46th coldest 3/1-4/3 in KC weather history…it’s felt so much worse though right? Even since the 15th-3rd it’s the 28th coldest. There have been colder stretches including just a few years ago…in 2013.

In both cases…it just feels like we should be higher in those rankings…but gosh it’s been miserable.

So let’s start with some good news…there should be a couple of days next week…later int eh week, that are pretty nice again. That’s about all I’ve got for you though.

Now the bad news…there is the potential for a record breaking snow on Friday. Now while I could make that a catchy headline of the weather blog…the record for snow accumulations on 4/6 is just a Trace. So anything really measurable would break that record. Odds are favoring measurable snow in the viewing area sometime later Friday into early Saturday morning.

Once again,, seemingly like every single event since the new year started…this will be another wave coming out of the western Plains…and while temperatures will warm into the 60s on Thursday…colder air will start to move back into the area on Friday. The air will be colder and also drier…and that drier air will need to be overcome and that will take awhile to happen…the morning at least and into the afternoon.

Once this next wave comes out into the Plains snow/sleet will develop and spread into N MO and also spread through central KS…

This wave right now looks rather disorganized and the best area of lift isn’t matching up well with where the snow actually will be forming. aloft…and when it does it doesn’t last too long for the I-70 corridor. As a result, right now it appears that this will be a lower end type of event for KC. Also there will be some initial melting…maybe some sleet production as well…and while the roads should be rather messy again…potentially as early as evening rush on Friday…the worst part of travel may be more towards Friday night after sunset. Also there should be time for pre-treating this time compared to Easter Sunday where there was little to no pre-treating done (at least to my observation).

This snow actually may come together better towards the SW and south of KC proper…so areas from Topeka>Garnett>Pleasanton>Butler>Clinton and into the Lakes may see more snow than the north part of KC…areas on the south side of the Metro may see more snow than the north side of KC. Obviously this is all subject to change.

Right now I think a dusting up to 2″ of snow is possible in KC, especially on the south side…with some higher totals possible farther south and SW of KC…again this is very preliminary.

The record low for Saturday is 18° set in 2007. It’s possible we could approach this…depends on the rapid clearing behind this wave…but the air mass coming in will certainly support something that cold…and IF there is snow on the ground…then for sure we could get even colder which IF that were to happen…17° or lower…would then be the coldest EVER in KC so late into the Spring season…that would be an impressive record to set.

We shouldn’t be as cold Sunday AM…but it would need to be watched because of any snow on the ground. Although the April sun angle on Saturday with mostly sunny skies should eat away the snow on the ground (if there is any) in the viewing area rather quickly.

Sunday is another day to watch for “something” although I’m not really sure how that will play out right now. The GFS is excited about something coming through in the AM as the warmer air starts to fight back northwards. we may have issues with precip type IF this even happens, at least as the event unfolds…The EURO isn’t excited about this next system for KC at all…but I could see some sort of small and light “something” passing through before lunch on Sunday.

Travis Wessel gets the feature photo today…because we all need some sunshine in our lives right now!

Joe

 

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

1 Comment

  • Craig

    Hey Joe I’m like you I didn’t see the city treating any of the roads especially around the Midtown area on the last storm Highway departments might have done something attorney way that you can check with Kansas City or the cities around us to see if they plan on treating this storm they really helps to know what plans you have for he need to change him to stay home