Joe’s Weather Blog: Severe Weather Risk later today/early this evening (FRI-4/13)

Good morning…my plan is to get another blog together this afternoon and have it posted by 3 or 4PM or so as we see how things are developing and evolving. My initial thoughts this morning are that this may be a later event than an earlier event…perhaps more towards or after sunset for the KC Metro area. There is a “cap” present and that could be an issue in the KC Metro area and points south through 6-7PM or so. What storms pop in NE KS will be moving NEwards at close to 60 MPH…so areas towards NW MO may have issues with better severe weather chances.



Forecast:

Today: Mostly cloudy, windy and muggy with highs in the 70s. What showers are out there this morning won’t last for too long on the MO side. Winds will gust to 35 MPH or so.

Tonight: Storm risks increase from 6-10PM or so. Storms on the KS side will be monitored in terms of how they hold together. Lows will drop into the 40s

Saturday: Blustery and colder. We’ll have a 12AM high well into the 50s but drop into the 40s during the day and perhaps 30s by later in the afternoon.

Sunday: There may be a few snow showers in the region in the morning but it will be a gray/cold day with highs struggling in the 30s…windy as well with NW winds of 20-30 MPH



Discussion:

Let’s get into radar first…

Now a look at the HRRR model which definitely loves convection. Note how it’s playing things this evening via IA State.

Our storm this morning is organizing in the Plains…

You can clearly see the area of low pressure in SE NE this morning…

As the day evolves…we should warm up to near 80° or so. Dew points came way up overnight to around 60°. Aloft there is a decent cap in place that will hold through the late afternoon along the State Line. West of here though that cap will weaken after 3-4 PM when storms should develop quickly. Those storms would move NNE at close to 50 MPH.

Those will need to be monitored in case they become severe at some point later this afternoon. The SPC has placed our area in an “enhanced” risk of storms.

The tornadic risk, while not 0, still looks to be more focused towards NW and far northern MO…into SW IA and especially farther south towards the AR area

Wind and hail would be the main threat for the KC region I think. Remain “Weather Aware” later today and tonight especially.

Most of you probably won’t have any severe weather at all (in terms of coverage). There may be some areas though that do…just remain informed after 4PM especially.

More coming later today…

Our feature photo comes from Todd Bryan…

Joe

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