Joe’s Weather Blog: This atmospheric set-up is a mess this afternoon (SAT-5/19)

Good afternoon…skies are gradually clearing from west to east…temperatures are warming up through the 70s as of this writing and we should be somewhere in the 80-85° territory by the end of the day. The surface wind fields are very chaotic right now in the region. I hate that when trying to connect the severe weather dots. The upper air pattern is also a mess as well thanks to all the rain and various waves that traversed through the region earlier this morning…I hate that as well when trying to connect the severe weather dots. The bottom line is that we are still in Weather Aware mode at FOX 4 and so should you be…whatever happens is probably a after 6-7PM scenario for the Metro. Not all will get storms…and there remains the potential of severe weather, especially hail/wind.



Forecast:

Today (2PM-6PM): Becoming mostly sunny and muggy with highs in the 80s. Storms may try to fire up near the Emporia area in the next 2 hours and track towards the ENE. These may affect the KC region before 6pm in scattered fashion.

Tonight: Storm risks increase after 6PM and especially after 8PM or so. Main threats in KC are wind/hail. We’ll be watching for anything more than that. There may be several waves of storms/rain overnight as well.

Sunday: Leftover AM showers possible and cooler with highs in the 70s



Discussion:

I don’t like anything about today’s “set-up” anymore. Not saying nothing will happen…we should have storms in the area…but with everything being a mess in the atmosphere right now…I’m not even sure where the storms focus will be. The highest risk I think continues to be in NW MO and NE KS.

The sun is coming out finally…so we should see some decent warming…that will, in time, and it may take a while…make us more unstable. One way you’ll be able to tell the atmosphere is at least trying to do something is to start paying attention to the clouds…flatter is good for less instability…billowy and vertically growing clouds indicate more instability.

The waves that came through the region this morning creating some rain…have sort of left the atmosphere in a jumbled mess…so trying to pinpoint an area that’s most favored for development is tougher than normal I think. I still feel though that NW MO and NE KS is somewhat more favored because they weren’t worked over.

The surface map at 1PM is a mess as well. There is actually a weak circulation on top of the KC region…

The main cold front is still across NE. Notice the temperatures in RED…50s up there and 70s to near 80 on the KS side at least.

At least we’re seeing more sunshine…it took awhile.

That aspect of the forecast was expected though. I knew yesterday we’d have rain this morning…and a sluggish start to the day in terms of warming up.

Radar is showing developing storms towards southern KS and OK as I type this.

Let’s see how that activity does…

The SPC continues it’s enhanced risk of severe storms in the KC region as well.

I’m not surprised by this continuance but also know that they don’t like trying to “downgrade” things when it’s still a murky weather picture…and I still feel it’s a murky weather situation.

On one hand…well maybe several, the tweets and caveats that I put out this morning are all very valid. It just doesn’t :look” right” to me right now at least. On the other hand…there is that front up there…that should light up later today…but to what extent remains to be seen. Then how does what happen up there in NW MO and NE KS end up effecting the KC Metro area and in what form.

I still think I’ll be showing storms this evening…the HRRR does say yes to that BUT it’s been all over the place with placement issues…which doesn’t surprise me. (via IA State)

The bottom line is we’ll keep watching…is this a definitive blog…not really. It’s just too much of a murky situation.

Here’s radar from Pleasant Hill…

I think there is a weak wave coming up from the south central area of KS that may create some new storms over the next few hours. If they form they should be felt especially from KC southwards.

So again there are a lot of balls the atmosphere is juggling right now…and every so often Mother Nature is dropping a few of them…making things a lot harder than they should be.

Our feature photo for this blog comes from Jennifer Stodden up towards KCI this morning.

Joe

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