Joe’s Weather Blog: Settling into some serious heat and humidity (FRI-5/25)

The holiday weekend is upon us and the weather is about to really turn into full fledged mid summer mode around KC…the incredibly warm May will finish on a toasty note…pretty impressive really. Every day this month, except for two, have had above average temperatures…and the two days that didn’t were exactly average…so the bottom line is that there have been NO days with temperatures below average here in KC…pretty remarkable for a month overall.

The other story today was the intense and heavy rains that many saw earlier this morning…some areas had over 4″ or so…creating some localized flooding. I had close to 1.9″ at my house. In all honesty…I wasn’t expecting that much rain this morning. this was the day we were expecting something better but that was impressive. KCI actually had some but only about 1/2″ or so. It’s a good thing we got that because, aside from perhaps some activity in the area on Saturday afternoon…the overall forecast seems pretty dry at this point for awhile.



Forecast:

Saturday>Memorial Day: Hot and humid with increasing temperatures. There is a chance of some scattered storms Saturday after 3PM or so, perhaps more focused on the MO side…but beyond that…rain chances are minimal and highs should be near 90°, perhaps lower 90s with lows in the 60s. Heat Index values will be approaching 95-100°.

Word of caution: Remember all the temperature readings that we show you are taken in the shade. Add 10-15° in the bright sun then add another 10-20° on pavement and you can see why you want to remain hydrated over the weekend.



Discussion:

The storms early this morning were impressive rain makers. In JOCO…rain amounts varied tremendously from very little in the western part of the county…to over 3″ in the eastern part of the county.

Here are some other totals reported at 7AM this morning… via the NWS.

Normally I’d tag on a picture of the doppler estimated totals BUT the radar was down through the event…it’s back up now but that data is forever gone I believe.

All that rain in the ground will get evaporated into the lower part of the atmosphere over the next 5 days or so. This will have an effect on the dew points which will remain high and the temperatures which will remain unseasonably warm bit also not be able to reach their full potential for awhile either. There won’t be much wind over the weekend…so the bottom line is a lot of upper 80s to near 95° on tap for awhile it appears. Through in those 65-70°+ dew points and you can see how the heat index will be near 100° (in the shade) as the next 5+ days move along.

It is unusual for us to have a string of 90s in May…as a matter of fact it’s only happened a few times where highs have been 90°+ in KC in the month of May

Notice a few indicators for 4 straight days…we won’t get there today…but starting tomorrow…it’s possible we finish the month with 5 straight which hasn’t happened before I don’t believe. As near as I can tell…we’ve done 4 straight days twice before. From 5/10-13 in 1962 and from 5/23-26 in 1967. We’ve never done it 5 straight. Something to ponder.

Other tidbits…

Alberto…has formed off the Yucaton Peninsula. This is technically what we refer to as a “sub-tropical” storm. There are differences between a “tropical” storm and a “sub-tropical” storm…mostly it has to do with how the storm actually forms and the temperature profile of the storms core as you go up in the atmosphere. Often these storms are sheared…and that is the case right now with Alberto. The winds above the storm have a tendency to blow the best convection away from the storms center.

 

 

 

There are a couple of swirls in the images above…you can see a tiny one off of Cozumel I believe.

Anyway a “sub-tropical” storm can morph into a “tropical” storm IF the winds above decrease enough so that the convection can reform and pull in tighter to the core of the storm…the low level center. That could happen over the weekend.

Regardless the main message for the storm is the potential for flooding rains into the SE part of the country.

 

That’s a lot of rain in an area that has seen quite a bit already.

As the weekend unfolds…take a look at the regional radar…

There is heat potential in the Gulf IF Alberto can tap into it…depending on other factors it may help Alberto gain some strength as it moves northwards.

It’s not totally unusual to have a system develop down there in May…

and when you broaden out the scope of the development area to the typical Atlantic Basin…and then you factor in May…going back over the last 10 years or so

So now we’ve had 7 named systems in the last 11 years to form during May…technically the season doesn’t start till June 1st. if you want to go back even farther…to 1950…

The bottom line is that there have now been 15 named storms in May going back to 1950…about 1 every 4 years or so.

Let’s go back even farther…it gets a bit dubious when adding in these years though before satellite technology was used.

Whatever Alberto is in a few more days…should come ashore towards the FL Panhandle or AL/MS area sometime on Monday…the worst of the rains will be east of the center…and there may be some decent storm surge into the FL Panhandle region as well when it does come ashore along with higher tides too…so some coastal flooding is very possible with this…in addition to flooding caused by persistent rains.

In a weird way…the progress of the remains of Alberto towards western TN next week…will sort of block up the pattern a bit. This will cause the heat and humidity to continue to be persistent around the area…also it’s something that will reduce any effects of wind as well…to a somewhat degree at least…so we’re going to bake and remain very sultry around these parts it appears.

Our feature photo comes from Cary Bahora…who captured multiple lightning flashes with the overnight storms.

Joe

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s

1 Comment

  • Nick

    Here in St. Joe seeing flooding on the KC news while the grass here turns crunchy, today is our third straight 90F or higher day here, so I am wondering if our dryness is already having an effect on the heat here, assuming we keep missing stuff it makes me wonder what the temps might be up here next week and beyound.