Joe’s Weather Blog: Fleeting chances and long-term heat (SAT-5/26)

Good afternoon…another hot one out there so far this afternoon as temperatures will approach record levels before the end of the day. The current record is 92° set back in 1985…let’s see how the day finishes up at KCI. St Joseph has already established a record high for today (95°+ at least). Meanwhile another consideration later this afternoon is for some storms to bubble up in the instability out there with the combo of heat + humidity + a very weak wind shift line near the region. All may conspire to create scattered storms giving some areas locally heavy rains before 9PM tonight. Beyond that though…not much coming for at least 5 days, if not longer.



Forecast:

Tonight: IF there are evening storms they will wane and skies will clear out. Warm and muggy with lows 65-70°

Sunday: Sunny and hot with highs 90-95°. The record is 94° set in 2006. Light winds

Monday (Memorial Day): Sunny and hot with highs 90-95°. Light winds. Record is 93° in 2006



Discussion:

So in addition to making a run at the record daily highs for the next 3 days (today>Monday) another thing that I’m tracking which I want to bring back up is the potential for a record consecutive stretch of 90°+ weather. The current run is 4 straight days…in 1962 and 1967. IF we get there on Wednesday well establish a new weird consecutive run which has NEVER happened before in the month of MAY since KC weather records were kept going back to the 1880s

Interestingly Wednesday may be a day that 90°+ is in jeopardy…but that depends on a lot of other factors which will be dealt with over the next few days.

Meanwhile this May continues to be one of the hottest on record for KC…

Today at least…the latest satellite pictures are showing some small areas of bubbling cumulus clouds towards the NW of KC. This is in response to the slightest of wind shifts that is moving across far northern MO and entering some rather unstable air. For the 2nd time this yer…we have 70°+ dew points out there…that has been a rarity so far this spring. Temperatures at 1PM are already at 90°

Beyond today though…not a lot happening for awhile it appears. Should storms form later this afternoon…they will contain some localized heavy rains…perhaps some near severe level winds (50+ MPH) and also frequent lightning.

The week overall continues to look mostly hot and humid. Tough to pin down the rain chances beyond later today though…although it’s worth watching THU>FRI AM as there may be storms somewhere in the region and when that happens various outflows can create new storms. Right now nothing glaring is showing up BUT it seems that some sort of disturbance or two out there could be created by whatever thunderstorm clusters try and form later in the week.

Another day to watch is Friday for a heat spike. There are obvious caveats to this, including whether or not storms/clouds are an issue BUT there have been indications that we may see highs in the 95-100° range that day…the record is 101° set in 1934.

Alberto is still down there…not exactly in the greatest of shape really.

Again it seems rain and flooding are the main issues at this point…

The EURO model is painting some 5-near 10″ cores of flooding rains in parts of FL through next WED the 30th.

Our feature photo comes from Chris Reed who caught the storm clouds the other morning on his drive in from Olathe.

With this summer pattern continuing over the rest of the holiday weekend…can’t promise any blogs into Tuesday as there just isn’t really anything of significance to write about. I don’t want to waste your time and since I just don’t through 1 or 2 paragraphs together unless I can come up with something interesting…we’ll play these few days by ear.

Have a great rest of the holiday weekend.

Joe

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1 Comment

  • Patrick Trudel (@sedsinkc)

    Never good to make summer comparisons to 1934 (as in the record high next Friday). At least we around KC, east, and south, have had some rain recently, which will delay our ascent to 2012-like temperatures or worse (like 1934). St Joe was 102 Saturday where full drought is in full progress.