Blustery With An Earthquake!
Blowing pretty good out there as strong S/SE winds are cranking through the area. So far the winds have been in the area of 30MPH in gusts and with temperatures struggling in the 50s as of this writing, it’s OK out there but not wonderful. That wind is certainly adding a chill to the air.
The winds are coming about ahead of a storm system that brought dust and rain to AZ yesterday. The rainfall was certainly welcome as the Phoenix area picked up about .50″ of much needed moisture for a whooping yearly total of 3″(! which is about 3.5″ below average. This storm will be moving through the western plains today and as it does so it will drag a weak pacific front through the area that will really not do anything to our weather tomorrow aside from help to drop off the winds and actually warm up the highs a bit by tomorrow afternoon. So as I mentioned this AM, tomorrow will be the better of the two weekend days.
This morning I was talking about how the 1st part of the day would be pretty cloudy as a result of some moisture sneaking in from the Ozarks. This moisture is still with us int he form of lower clouds but is gradually breaking up thanks to the strong winds aloft stirring the atmosphere and allowing some of the drier air just above the surface to work it’s way down. We should still end up with highs near or above 60 I think for the last part of the afternoon. Again tomorrow looks great with highs in the mid-upper 60s after a mild start with lows in the upper 40s-50°.
Another storm off the west coast will be our next significant rain maker it appears as it moves into the middle part of the country on Monday. The front that will pass through harmlessly tomorrow will stall in the Ozarks area as moisture from the gulf starts to flow northwards. This front will then start to move back northwards as a warm front that will get near us and stall again. This is a great recipe, with S/SW flow aloft initially to create rain and thunderstorms, perhaps even some heavy rainfall. The upper level storm will then head our way later Tuesday with another opportunity to pick up more rain. Sometimes in these situations, I’d be somewhat concerned about severe weather here, but right now it appears the instability will be held in check and severe weather isn’t expected. We’ll need to watch it carefully. While it shouldn’t rain continuously on Tuesday as potentially severe weather develops to the south of here, that rain will move our way as well. The main risk of severe weather on Monday is down towards TX and OK…
The rainfall potential with this storm is again very promising. The NAM is VERY bullish with the rain totals, while the GFS is not nearly as bullish, and actually dry slotting us on Tuesday. Here is the NAM idea for total rain…impressive.
As mentioned the GFS isn’t quite as aggressive…
Click on those images to make them larger.
The storm should blow through here early WED AM and as a result chillier air on the backside of the storm will linger through THU AM before the air starts to warm-up again.
Hey did you hear about the earthquake centered 46 mi. east of Oklahoma City this AM…it was a 4.7 which supposedly is the 2nd strongest in their recorded history. It was felt in MO/KS and AR.
Have a great weekend!