Things are About To Get Very Wet!

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+++IF you missed the winter forecast, we’re replaying the individual forecasts tonight during the 9PM newscast+++

Pesky clouds are literally forming right on top of the metro and S/SEwards this morning and afternoon. North and west of KC things are bright and sunny. A weak wind shift line, that separates some higher dewpoint air and air that is slightly drier is along the I-35 corridor. The clouds will thin at times this afternoon and probably thicken back up tonight as temperatures cool back down into the 40s. The satellite picture taken at lunch shows the dividing line being so close to the metro.

As we start to see more breaks in the clouds this afternoon, with this weak trof in the area, it’s not out of the question that there might be a few isolated showers developing. The odds favor areas S/SE of the metro along the trof line. Something to watch for.

Meanwhile our focus will be on a soon to be powerful upper level storm that is now moving through central California. This energy will then move into the plains and pass just northwest of the KC area. As the storm moves into the plains it will help develop a surface low in N TX, that will move NEwards along the boundary that is on top of us now (this boundary should move south tonight then retreat northwards through TUE AM). As this occurs, copious gulf moisture at the surface and aloft will be streaming our way. All a perfect setup for rain and maybe lots of it. The models have their various solutions but are converging on the potential for 1-3″ of rainfall in the area. Take a look at the solutions starting with the NAM…

Now here is the GFS…

and finally the EURO…

All pretty much agreeing that a LOT of rain is going to fall between Monday afternoon and Tuesday. There is a question of whether or not we’ll get dry slotted on Tuesday which is very possible as the storm in the upper levels winds up and sucks in drier air from the SW. This would diminish the rain a bit on Tuesday…and perhaps give us closer to 1-2″ as opposed to closer to 3″. I’m leaning in the 1-2″ idea right now on the assumption we get dry slotted.

Another issue is the potential of back side snow…this is a possibility towards the NW of the area up towards the NW tip of MO/SW IA and NE KS and SE NE…it may happen and there could be accums as well well NW of KC. Something else to think about tomorrow and TUE is a large temperature spread that will exist with temps in the 40° territory in NW MO and closer to 60-65° area closer to the lakes. So a large spread is expected.

Regardless of the snow potential, there will be chillier air moving into the area WED AM into THU AM before the air moderates and warms towards the end of the week…setting us up for another mild weekend.

One other aspect of the storm is the risk for severe weather towards the southern plains states. This year has been a wild one for many different reasons on OK (see last night’s earthquake blog) but check out what they’ve dealt with…courtesy of the NWS in Norman.

Here’s a rundown of some of the statewide records for Oklahoma so far this year.

Most Snow in a 24 Hour Period:

27 inches

Spavinaw, OK

Feb 9-10, 2011

 

Coldest Temperature:

-31 degrees

Nowata, OK

Feb 10, 2011

 

Largest Hailstone:

6.0 inches

2 miles north of Gotebo

May 23, 2011

 

Highest Wind Speed  highest official surface wind measurement (not radar-based)

150.8 mph

El Reno

May 24, 2011

 

Highest Summer Average Temperature:

86.8 degrees

This was also the hottest average summer temperature in history for any state

 

Warmest August Average Temperature:

87.7 degrees

There are statewide records, and do not include records set in individual cities, etc.

Tomorrow and Tuesday offer risks of severe weather down there…

And for Tuesday…

Finally, the earthquake in OK last night. I won’t rehash all the information that I put in the blog last night but I did show something this AM on the newscast that was fascinating. We all have heard stories about animals that have a reaction right before a quake hits. It just so happens that as the quake the occurring the NWS was scanning the skies with thir doppler radar…the result was amazing and the picture animation says it all…take a look.

Pretty cool…

If there are substantial changes need to the forecast I’ll update the blog this evening during the 9PM show.

Joe

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