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A Quiet Weather Day

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It is just wonderful out there for mid November…temperatures now are in the 60s across the region and it looks like this will be the best day of the week in terms of a lack of wind, sun and mild air.

The satellite picture tells the story…interesting that there is a nice wave in the upper midwest that is showing up very nicely in the data…

Here is that wave to the north of here…

Very cool along the border of MN and ND…there is some snow associated with that system as well…

There is a cold front on the door step and tomorrow will be about 15 degrees cooler than today it appears as highs struggle to get to 50°.

Thursday AM should be the coldest before winds once again start to bring in the warm air again…it’ll be a transition day as the strong south winds kick in later THU evening through SAT…we’re talking 30-40MPH winds that will be possible in that time frame…so get ready for that!

A strong cold front will usher a significant change on SAT PM…it will plow through, the winds will switch towards the N/NW and temperatures will tumble…odds are we should be well into the 60s SAT and then struggle in the 40s on Sunday as blustery N winds make it really feel like fall again.

Rainfall wise, there may be a few spits on SAT with the gulf moisture streaming this way…and again SAT evening behind the front…but it looks to be about another week before we get some better rain chances.

Our “Second” severe weather season was been a total dud (hope I’m not speaking too soon) but there has been some activity. Yesterday there were 2 EF2 tornados in western NY…that’s the first time there been anything like that since 1950…and perhaps the 1st time since the late 1880s. Also this came out from NOAA today, showing that the month of October was the 2nd warmest on record for the earth…the graphis is pretty interesting to look at…

Here is the text to go along with the image…courtesy of NOAA…

While the combined land-ocean surface temperature was the 8th warmest on record, land surface temperatures, when analyzed separately, were far above normal. Globally, the average October land surface temperature was second warmest on record, at 1.10°C (1.98°F) above average. On average, land areas across the Northern Hemisphere—where the majority of the Earth’s land mass is located—were the warmest on record for the month, at 1.29°C (2.32°F) above the 20th century average. The warmth was especially pronounced across Alaska, Canada, Mongolia, and most of Russia and Europe. This image shows much of central and northern Russia with average temperatures more than 5°C (9°F) above average.

La Niña conditions in the Pacific have cooled ocean surface temperatures when compared to the above normal land temperatures. Globally, the average October sea surface temperature was 13th warmest on record. While it was cooler than normal in the central and eastern Pacific where La Niña conditions are most intense, it was notably warmer than normal across the north central and northwest Pacific, the northeast Atlantic, and portions of the mid-latitude Southern oceans.

Finally, I think I’ve figured out how to post our internal videos. We’ve talked a lot about our thoughts concerning the winter and even your predictions as well. One of our popular features on the Winter Forecast is the roundtable where we have a little fun at each others expense…it seemed this year it was me and my numbers. Anyway I’m a big boy and can handle whatever Don dishes out at me…take a look at the video, I hope you get a chuckle or two…

Joe

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