Nice Weekend Warmth…Then ?

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Don’t forget about the PUBLIC memorial to my friend and colleague Meteorologist Don Harman, coming tomorrow @ 8AM to Union Station near Pierpont’s. Also this will be aired live during the FOX 4 Weekend Morning News, from 8-8:45 AM and also streamed live @ Tomorrow AM I’ll also repost my tribute to Don on the Weather Blog so you can read through it if you’re online during the AM.

Spent my late morning doing a live shot @ the Wal Mart @ 135th & Blackbob in Olathe helping to raise awareness for the Salvation Army this holiday season. I’ve got to admit for the last several years I thought it would be sort of fun to ring the bell for awhile and say Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays to hundreds of folks…and it was actually pretty darn fun. Now to be fair, it was 35° or so with very little wind. Even with the temperate weather I started to lose feeling in my toes after about 90 minutes or so. I can’t imagine how the bell ringers face the real winter elements on an almost daily basis.

The Salvation Army as been doing this for 120 years…their local goal this year is close to $2 Million…they’re running a bit behind schedule, so if you see the bell ringers out there, feel free to drop in some dollar bills or coins or whatever. Every penny counts. Watching the small kids drop in various coins is just adorable!

Onto the weather, which is seasonably chilly for mid December. Readings now are in the 36-40° range and and again will fall into the lower 20s tonight. Highs over the weekend should be near 50° tomorrow and 50-55° on Sunday with increasing high clouds.

Those clouds will be the leading edge of our next storm which is sitting and spinning in far southern CA. It will continue to essentially be stationary through Sunday before ejecting out MON into TUE through the plains states. The modelling continues to suggest rain breaking out on Monday with readings in the 40s.

The issue becomes what happens TUE AM…and there continues be be a chance of snow somewhere near daybreak on TUE lasting into early TUE PM. In reality there have been no real changes in my thinking from yesterday and for the sake of brevity I really won’t rehash everything I said yesterday. This doesn’t look to be a long term event from a snow standpoint, and there may be a period of time where we have some sort of mixed bag of precipitation. I’m not really expecting much, if any, freezing rain at this point. There may be a period of decent snow however with temperatures of 32-35°. If we could get a heavy enough snow, then we’ll have accumulations. There  are other possibilities though with this storm, if we don’t get targeted with the wrap-around (deformation) part of the storm, then any snow really would be insignificant. This is possible if this zone” is flung more towards the N of the metro. at this point areas farther S/SEwards seem to have a lesser chance of an accumulation, whereas areas farther N/NE/NWards have a better chance. At this point, unless something really changes, and again that’s always possible, especially on the less snow side with this storm, it’s tough for me to see how, as a worse case scenario, we see more than 2-4″ out of this, and again the potential is certainly there for something less than this. The modelling track is still pretty good though and while there have been some minor wobbles as usual (and expect more of this over the weekend) the modelling has been somewhat consistent. The precipitation fields/amounts will always vary, perhaps more so than any other parameter.

I’ll be updating the blog over the weekend.


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