Just How Warm Can it Get?
Welcome back to the blog! How you had a good Christmas and we all wish you Happy Holidays! Don’t forget to follow the FOX 4 Weather team on twitter @ fox4wx. I’ll be promoting this heavily over the next few weeks. I won’t be throwing a lot of stuff on there and filling up your time line, nor will I be constantly promoting the fact that “I’ll have the latest @ whatever time,” I hate when TV stations do that ALL the time. Basically for now we’ll give you first word of blog updates, quick weather stats for the KC area that no one else will tell you, and we’ll see where it goes from there, especially when the weather get’s active again.
Could I post something about breaking a record high temperature…yup. Can that happen sometime int he next 5 days…doubtful, but we’re going to be in the vicinity on a couple of days like I talked about last night. The record for Thursday is 68°, the record for Saturday is 66° and the record for Monday is 67°. The days that, perhaps have a chance are Saturday and maybe next Monday. It’s awfully tough, obviously to get that warm during this time of the year. You need warm, downsloping winds off the higher terrain in the Western Plains, you need almost full sunshine, and you need wind. A thick batch of cirrus clouds moving in between 10AM-2PM can knock 5°+ off the potential highs for a day. Likewise if the winds aren’t strong enough, and the atmosphere doesn’t get mixed enough, the warm air aloft doesn’t get brought down to the ground. Oh and I forgot a lack of snowcover in that scenario as well.
Many of these things may come together. On Thursday, for example, the air at about 5K feet will be close to 50°. Assuming there is enough wind, that would support highs in the 60-65° range. The thing that we’ll need to watch for is the potential for thin cirrus clouds complicating the potential somewhat.
Another day is Saturday. We should see a weak pacific front move through Friday. This may knock our highs back down to near 50-55°, but we should go right back up again on Saturday…perhaps in the 60s again. Then another weak front pushes through and we do the whole thing all over again on Monday perhaps. Timing these fronts is so tricky. They’re moving at breakneck speed and if they come in during the day, it will crush your potential. That’s why I’m trying to not get too carried away with the forecast potential.
It’s interesting to see how the models are fighting things out, in terms of what may or may not happen. There is a huge “battle of the models” for the potential of an arctic air blast next week. Here is the early AM run of the GFS model…for later next Monday, the 2nd.
Now take a look at roughly the same timeframe, with the EURO model, which looks like it freaked out a bit or a lot, last night.
You’re looking at the temperatures @ about 5K feet. On the GFS model, we’re looking at reading at that level of close to 55°(!). Now the EURO forecast is calling for temperatures at that level to be closer to +5°. An amazing 50° difference. That rarely happens in the model fight.
Updated @ 3PM…the midday runs of the models are singing the same tune…the American model is rather mild to warm, while the EURO model is bone chilling cold for early next week. Now, however the EURO model has company in it’s thought. The Canadian model is pretty chilly as well which is concerning. It will make the difference between highs MON-TUE of next week in the 50s-60s or highs in the teens-20s. So what do I think will happen. Well the truth is probably in between. The EURO is a drastic and in my opinion too drastic a forecast. T
he GFS is probably under done with a cold shot of air for next Tuesday. I would expect a return back to average or somewhat below for next Tuesday. I’ve decided to just play the “warm” card until I see something else more definite. The new afternoon GFS is mild for early next week. I’ll run with that for the newscasts tonight. This will be something to watch though. Should the EURO be closer, the set-up would be there for a nasty NE snowstorm by the middle of next week.
At this point there is no chance of any significant snowstorms for the foreseeable future. Speaking of snow…I leave you with a satellite picture from yesterday. There were about a dozen record highs including Minneapolis, St Cloud and Duluth. Look at the lack of snowcover up there!