Decent, But Brief, Cold Shot

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11PM Update…

The newest models out tonight are suggesting the potential for an accumulating snow beginning tomorrow evening through about midnight for the KC area. Off towards the east of KC the potential of snow to linger goes till about 3-6AM THU. While not a lot in the big scheme of things, the potential is there for the most snow that we’ve seen so far this season. The NAM is the most aggressive forecasting amounts in the 1-3″ range, with 1-2″ in the metro to close to 3″ just to the NE/E of town. Here is the map…

The newest GFS is more along the lines of a dusting to 1″ or so. at this point it’s my feeling that that is a bit more realistic and while there may be a bit more off to the east of KC, I think at this point for the metro, I’d be going with 1″ or less.

The thing about it is that with the winds blowing at 20-35 MPH, it will be impossible to measure. My fear though in the AM blog about the potential of melting and refreezing on the roads is increasing since they have no treatments on them, and unless the road crews are very proactive tomorrow PM there may be some issues tomorrow night with slick conditions, especially after 9PM. Right now my feeling is that both rush hours will be OK…but again should this band of snow materialize and should it snow hard enough, then we need to watch out tomorrow night.

The kicker is that temperatures may approach 50°, especially from KC south and southeastwards tomorrow in the early afternoon before readings start tumbling and the winds start howling.

Thursday’s highs may struggle in the mid 20s with a few flurries.

I’ll update things in the AM…

jl

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Good morning and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog…

For close to, if not more than a week now, we’ve been telling you about our strong, but remember, seasonable cold front heading this way tomorrow. Nothing has really changed, as Wednesday will be the transition day to a much colder, but seasonable, airmass heading this way. Though when you think about where we’ve been, from a temperature standpoint for the past month+, it will certainly catch your attention as wind chills on Thursday AM will be dropping to near 0°. Highs on Thursday will be in the 20s, potentially the coldest highs we’ve seen so far this winter (28°). Make sure you think about it as you get the kids ready for school on Thursday.

There is the potential, I guess, for some very light snow or flurries to move through the region as well. The models have been hinting at this for the past couple of days, especially the GFS, then last night the EURO. The timing on that would be sometime tomorrow early evening till about 3AM THU morning. As this potential develops, temperatures would be dropping through the 30s and into the 20s plus winds would be increasing into the 20-30 MPH range. The concern that I would have would be IF any light snow would melt on the roadways then freeze as the temperatures are going down creating the potential for some black ice areas, especially since there is no residual treatment on any of the roadways in the region. While at this point it looks like that whatever might happen would be over with before rush hour on Thursday, it’s something to watch for at least, in a winter that has had little to watch for.

Meanwhile this AM a nice little storm is passing well to the south of the region as expected. This is the same storm that created another record breaking snow across parts of West Texas yesterday that I was tweeting about @fox4wx. More on that in a minute. It also created some very heavy rainfall across parts of eastern TX, and for the 1st time in more than a year, they had to issue Flash Flood Warnings I think in the Houston area as parts of Houston picked up a ton rainfall. Houstoin-Hobby Airport picked up over 4″ of rainfall. Conroe had close to 3.5″. Meanwhile, farther west in the cold part of the storm, it was snow that made headlines…Midland, TX set a daily precip record of .70″, a daily snowfall record of 10.6″, for the date and for that matter any date, and finally the big kahuna, their ALL-time winter snow total record, now up to 19.5″

Let’s put that 19.5″ in perspective for you. That’s more snow than Chicago, Milwaukee, Madison, Topeka, Concordia, KS, Wichita, KC, Columbia, MO, St Louis, and Springfield, MO, and Des Moines…COMBINED! Simply astounding!

On the subject of snowfall and now snowcover, these are telling maps, and I think I’m starting to beat a dead horse here. Right now in the Midwest there is 0% snowcover. Let’s look back @ 2011 on this date…

Snowcover on this date last year was 62.3%…

Let’s go back another year to 2010…where 82.1% was snowcovered.

This type of data only goes back about 8+ years so the sample size is pretty small, but this is the least amount of snowcover in the midwest sector since 2007 (1.8%)

The storm causing this will be affecting the SE part of the country today, and there is actually the potential of some severe weather down there, including, perhaps, a few tornados.

By the way, after this cold shot moves through the area, we should start to moderate over the weekend, mainly SUN, as highs may try to surge to near 50° before we dabble into some colder air again for the early part of next week and that colder air may last for most of next week.

Have a great day, I feel a round of January golf coming up!

Joe

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