It May Finally Get Chilly!

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A couple of weeks ago, I passed along a story about DH and I texting each other. We used to do it all the time and I saw something yesterday that made me remember him just a bit. When there was a blown forecast in the making he would text me a certain NSFW word that has a tendency to be auto-corrected…a lot. Actually there were two words that he used depending on how bad the forecast was going for whatever day was in question. Almost like two levels if you will. There was a “level one word” and a “all heck is going down the tubes word”. The first word started with a “S” and the second word was auto-corrected when it got to me so that it started with a “D”.

True story…one day I was on my way through the parking lot at the station and I got a text from him saying “duck”. Now I instantly knew what I thought he meant but then I got to thinking in the next split second. Suppose he was up to something. So in the next second I decided to literally…well…duck. I must have looked like an idiot for a second.

I bring this up for a second because I saw this making the rounds yesterday. I guess there is a VERY NSFW  site that’s dedicated to conversations that are typed real fast and the typee, if you will, doesn’t realize that his typing has been auto-corrected. I do get flustered with the auto-correct function sometimes. I saw this and I thought it was pretty funny and perfect for a weather conversation.

 

So the next time I mention that there is a “Flash Flamingo Watch” in effect for the area, odds are you’ll know that I auto-corrected myself. Either that our you may want to “duck” just to be on the safe side….but I digress.

The latest maps for today are anything but exciting. There is some very light precipitation trying to fall out there, but as I look east, as of this writing, I can see the sun coming up a bit through the clouds. Looking west, the cloud bases appear to me to be rather high. Looking at radar from the Topeka vantage point (Pleasant Hill’s radar is still down) there are echos showing up. I’ve checked the AM sounding from Topeka and it’s showing a layer of somewhat dry air below about 6K feet. What precip there is out there is probably evaporating before it reaches the ground. There is actually a weather word for that process. It’s called virga.

The disturbance that’s moving our way today is so weak and so disorganized that it’s going to have a tough time creating any organized precipitation. With a lack of precip temperatures today should pop to near 40°.

The weather map this AM shows a cold front moving through the region as well. we now have north winds in place allowing some chillier weather to slowly push southwards. It’s not unusually cold to the north, but my suspicion is that the clouds will gradually thicken today as a result of the colder air moving in and the weak disturbance getting closer and there may be some light precip, really in any kind, sliding through the region. You may see some flakes later this afternoon, raindrops or even a couple of ice pellets. Regardless of what you see it should be very light.

The next focus on the forecast will be on the colder weather moving our way. One shot is tomorrow, followed by fast moderation on THU, then a bit more of a substantial show occurs heading towards FRI-SAT. Considering the average highs are in the 40s right now. We may actually have a couple of days with highs in the 30s and lows down into the teens. Here is the GFS forecast of the temperatures at 5K feet or so showing the movement of the chillier airmass due in later this week.

 

As far as the timing of the maps go…00Z represents 6PM and 12Z means 6AM. The days are pretty easy to figure out and the maps go left to right every 12 hours. So if you read this after lunch today the first map in the upper left will be for 6PM THU then the map to the right will be for 6AM FRI then the LL will be 6PM FRI and the LR will be 6AM SAT.

What can be readily seen is the progression of some colder weather. Really cold stuff as a matter of fact across SE Canada. Notice we get into the back end of the colder air. So while it will certainly be chillier to the N and well to the NE, we’ll still see an nice shot of cold air. The air will modify a bit as usual but not as much as it has been doing this winter because there is actually some snowcover out there to the north of the region. Not a lot, but in a season of very little it is what it is.

We should start to modify our temperatures a bit by Sunday. this past Sunday I was hoping we’d get back to near 50°, it looks like that could be a push now.

By the way, it was 200 years ago that the New Madrid Earthquake occurred. Centered in NE AR, church bells rung as far away as NY, ME and Toronto, Canada. It was believed to be a 7.7 magnitude quake.

Joe

 

 

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