Cold And Snowy

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Good morning and thanks for stopping by the FOX 4 Weather Blog. Again just a reminder you can follow us on Twitter @fox4wx.

3PM Update: Here is a look at the map from 2PM this afternoon, notice how temperatures haven’t changed much around here, despite a good amount of sunshine helping our cause out a bit.

The morning data is doing about what I expected. I’ll post a couple of snowfall total maps for you run off the models. This is not our forecast at this point, we don’t issue forecasts on snow amounts from 2-3 days out usually. I did say on the noon show that I felt at this point we’re looking at an under 2″ scenario. Obviously that can change. The storm in question is still located off the NW part of the USA. Here it is on the satellite view. it’s actually the energy on off the coast of OR and N CA.

This energy should get sampled better with our upper air observations tomorrow AM. As that occurs we’ll see if there are any wild gyrations in the model data. The biggest negative for snowlovers on this thing is that it should come through the region in different pieces like I mentioned yesterday, and it will be disorganized as that occurs. We also lose the mid level moisture from the storm as it flies away before noon on Monday. What that means is that the snow would lighten up/stop so that the snow window is short and most of the accumulating snow would end after 9AM, if not earlier.

The one thing that is working for us is that there will be a decent amount of warm air and moisture work up here quickly SUN night, and these scenarios can surprise us. IF the storm would be stronger as it moves through there would be upside potential for all this but at this point we won’t go there. So with that said here is a look at what the NAM model is thinking.

This model indicates anywhere from a dusting to 2″ for most of the viewing area.

The GFS model shows about the same with a bit of an uptick in the amounts, more of the 1-3″ range.

If I remember correctly our in house models were in the 1-2″ range.

Something else that will be considered is that the air will be pretty darn cold through the column so while we use a 10:1 normal snow to liquid ratio…in other words 10″ of snow equals 1″ of rain, this might be more of a 12-13:1 ratio. So maybe you can squeak in another 1/2″ or so of accumulation.

Again a lot of variables, but I think you can get a feel of where I’m going with this. I’ll be more specific over the weekend, especially heading into later SAT night and early SUN on the news. Of course I’ll give you some preliminary thoughts on the blog before that. That’s what it’s there for right?

Now back to the morning blog…..

The morning blog will deal with the cold air that’s spreading this way. We’ll put highs in the 35-40° range since those occurred @ midnight or so, but in reality this afternoon temperatures will only be around 20-25° with wind chills near 10°. if not single digits up across N MO. We should see some sunshine as the late AM moves along and you should need your sunglasses and winter coats to get you through the rest of your Friday.

Here is the latest surface map showing the colder air streaming our way. I’ve included isotherms (lines of equal temperatures) so you can see the colder air a little better. The temperatures are in RED by the way…pretty chilly air is moving towards us thanks to NW winds.

Also take a look at the morning visible satellite picture. Notice some nice little breaks in the clouds towards the immediate north of the metro. You can also see the snowfield on the terrain in NE…also look down towards OK and you can see snow on the terrain as well.

As I’ve talked about for the last several days, this will be the coldest airmass of the season and model guidance suggests lows SAT and SUN AM may be down to 0-5° above zero.

Concerning the snowmaker later Sunday night..that is still on track to bring us a nuisance snow (but conceivably the largest snow of the winter) into MON AM. Right now the models are still in the dusting to 2″ range and that seems pretty reasonable at this point. We’ll get more into that on the afternoon blog. I should get that done by 3PM at the latest today and will notify our twitter followers within seconds after it’s posted!

Joe

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