More Frost Is Likely

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Good morning and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog. If you’re a gardener, be aware that Tuesday and Wednesday AM are looking more and more like frosty AM’s for parts of the area. Wednesday AM looks especially promising assuming there are clear skies. Lows in spots may drop down into the upper 20s, especially in the outlying areas so make sure you cover up those tender plants. Some got nipped pretty good on Sunday AM but if they made it, make sure you cover them up again for the next couple of nights.

The NAM model has been very persistent in generating cloudcover later TUE and WED AM. I didn’t want to bite on that because of the tendency for it to then shift the clouds farther SW and the latest run seems to be wanting to do that, and keeping skies mostly clear through WED, before the clouds rapidly start to increase on THU. It’s THU that the rain chances really start to increase as warm air advection with a good shot of moisture starts moving in over the cooler surface air. That generates lift and it won’t take much to give us rainfall. Also with the air initially being dry at the surface, that rain will cool things down and THU may be a real struggle for us to warm up depending on how everything evolves.

Aside from that there are no changes to the potential for rain, and perhaps heavy rains off and on from Friday through the early part of next week. Those details will be more refined as the week goes along and you can see yesterday’s blog for more information about the scenario setting up.

I wanted to spend a few minutes recapping the month of March as more information is coming out concerning just how warm it was across the nation. Some 15000 records were set for warmest highs and warmest overnight lows. NOAA today came out with a cool visualization showing the progress of the record warmth across the country. Take a look!

Every state in the nation experienced at least one record high temperature and hundreds of locations experienced their all-time warmest March temperatures. For MO and KS it was the warmest March on record as this next graphic will show.

When you see the number 118, that means that out of 118 years of records 118 represents the top of the list in warmth. You can clearly see the number 118 is all over the place across the central and eastern part of the country. All told there were 25 states east of the Rockies having their all time warmest March temperatures. Meanwhile in AK, it was their 10th coldest March on record.

Other statistics released by NOAA…no surprise here that the period from JAN-MAR was the warmest 3 month period in recorded history. 6° above the long term average. Alaska had the 9th coldest.

Even farther back, the period from last April to March of this year was the warmest 12 month period in recorded weather history for the USA. There is more information about all this in the latest report from the NCDC.

For KC the month of March was 14.2° above average. Which got me thinking was the month, compared to average, the warmest month ever? The answer is NO. actually that designation goes back about 6 years to January of 2006, which ended up some 15.8° above average. It should be noted that the average temperatures of each month vary in 30 year periods and are reset every 10 years so the average monthly target does move a bit. technically I think JAN of 1933 was the warmest JAN on record with an average temperature of 42.4° as opposed to the 41.9° in JAN 2006. It’s likely that the average JAN temperature back in 1933 was different than it was in 2006. Also of more important note is that the the location of the official weather station for KC changed from the downtown area to KCI. During JAN of 2006, Downtown KC was 12.6° above average.

That’s it for today!


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