Freeze Warnings & A 1 Week Storm?
There has been a characteristic of the last couple of months where some of the storms have a tendency to linger for awhile, perhaps more so than that would be considered average in a time of the year where the weather usually moves pretty quickly. we all remember a few weeks ago when we had the 5 day storm with repeated chances of rainfall and lots of clouds interrupted at times by some sunshine. We may be entering another one of the storm systems. More on that in a minute.
First things first, and that’s the chilly weather slowly creeping into the region today through tomorrow. As high pressure moves down from Canada, cooler air will slowly ooze it’s way into the region today. The decent April sunshine will help to ease the chill somewhat today, and while highs won’t make it to yesterday’s perfect levels of 71° or so, we should still make it to about 65° officially @ KCI. Once the sun sets though the combination of clear skies, light winds, and rather dry air (low dewpoints) should allow temperatures to quickly drop and then crater near daybreak tomorrow AM. This may very well be the coolest morning forecast till this coming fall but IF you have tender plants out there you know the precautions to take.
The NWS has issued a freeze Warning for areas off towards the NE of KC where temperatures should be a bit colder, we’re talking 25-30° in NC/NE/C MO, Here is an outline of the warning.
The counties shaded in the light blue represent counties under that warning. Notice that this does not include the KC area. For the metro, temperatures are expected to drop to 30-35° by daybreak tomorrow with the potential for some patchy frost. Widespread frost may not occur because the air will be dry, with dewpoints in the 20-25° range. For frost to for, you’d like to see the dewpoints be closer to the actual air temperature. For tomorrow AM the spread may be a little too much, but still gardeners should take their precautions.
This wouldn’t be as much of an issue except for the fact that we had such a warm March/Winter around these parts. See yesterday’s blog for more information about all that. So obviously things are much more advanced from a growing standpoint that normal. Remember the average last freeze around the metro is 4/8, so in the scheme of average, this is about what should happen during this time of the year. The average last freeze for areas off towards the NE and E of KC is not for another 7-14 days or so.
For KC the last time we dropped to 32° or below was back on 3/10, about 1 month ago today. Should this hold, from a climatological standpoint it would be one of the earliest last 32° in our weather history and the earliest in the last 30+ years.
There are still no changes needed to the forecast for the rain chances associated with the next storm system for later in the week as the rain chances will be increasing on THU and lasting for quite some time. It may not rain every day, and it certainly won’;t rain all the time during those days, think of the rain coming more in waves, but the rain potential will be there. Should the timing of the NAM work out for the rain on THU, it will be a real struggle for us to warm up. I’ve blogged about that previously.
The key to the forecast will be the progression, or lack thereof of a Cut Off Low that will be moving through the western part of the country. When that thing finally decides to shear out or move through the region will dictate when the rain chances will come to an end for good as a result of that storm system. Here are the latest model progs off the GFS run showing the progression on the upper level low.
Notice how the trof moves from off the west coast to the cutting off across the SW part of the country near Las Vegas to moving towards CO by early next week. At times, assuming that model is correct disturbances will move our way in the SW flow aloft ahead of the storm. With the atmosphere being warm and moist, thanks to a persistent flow from the Gulf, we’ll be primed for T/storms and rainfall, with the potential of locally heavy rain at that. Exactly where this all set’s up is still a question, but the potential is certainly there. Here is the 7 day GFS forecast for rainfall.
Again, like yesterday and the day before that’s a 3-6″ swath of rainfall through the region.
The EURO is very much the same with this idea as well. So we’ll likely be going from somewhat dry conditions in the metro to much wetter conditions over the next week or so.
There will be the risk of some severe weather will all this as well, but that is still a bit more of a question at this point. Perhaps the higher potential is more towards S KS and OK, but whatever forms there will be racing towards the KC region. That’s why, if nothing else, the rain will be in the forecast (perhaps favoring more of a nighttime/early AM timing though?).
Speaking of severe weather, there was some tornado activity yesterday in western OK, also some very large hail too. Here is some video of a rare anti-cyclonic tornado. These only occur a handful of times each year courtesy of loadedgunchasing.com/
That’s about it for today, I may post a quick update later this afternoon if things need touching up with the new data.