Iffy Weather And Warmer Days
Temperatures today are struggling somewhat as reading this AM dropped into the 35-40 range and an east wind that is very light is not helping out with the mixing of the atmosphere as High Pressure continues to circulate cool dry air into the region.
You can see that with this map, as the dewpoints are nice and low here. Meanwhile dewpoints are a lot higher down through OK (50s/60s).
The center of the high is still located across the the Ohio Valley region and will only slowly drop towards the S and E overnight tonight. That means that the dry air at the surface will continue to flow our way through tomorrow AM. Here is the RUC forecast for 12 hours…at the time of this writing for midnight tonight.
The moisture though just above the surface is not that far away and you can see that in the latest satellite picture.
The moisture will move our way tomorrow AM ans we should totally cloud over in the AM tomorrow. With that moisture will come a least a chance of some scattered showers, and potentially a few rumbles of thunder but I think it will be a rather hit or miss affair tomorrow with perhaps better chances of seeing some storm activity developing tomorrow night into FRI AM. That would be associated with a low level jetstream that will be strengthening and poking towards us later tomorrow evening. That means the higher rain chances would be from KC northwards lingering until SAT AM.
IF things can work out, we may be OK for the Royals home opener with decent south winds of 15-30 MPH and readings in the 70s.
Concerning severe weather, I think the highest chances would be later Sunday into Sunday night. The severe risk on Saturday I think is more confined across the SC parts of KS and OK. That activity however would be moving towards the NE or even NNE. So the potential is there for more rain later SAT night into SUN AM. Should any of the stronger storms hold together, with winds above the surface at over 50 MPH, it wouldn’t take much for some marginal severe storms to generate winds of 50-60 MPH. Again a big IF there because the activity may not be able to hold together.
Then for the region a higher potential of stormy weather develops later Sunday into Sunday night. It would be here that the threat of severe weather would be highest for the next 5-6 days I think. That will be something that will need to be watched in addition to the threat for heavy rainfall in what will be a rather saturated atmosphere.
During the noon show I talked about how I hated sticking rain in every day for 5 straight days. I always feel that this is a cop out of a way of doing things. Needless to say with a slow moving storm, that may not get away from us till sometime next Tuesday and warmth and moisture moving up from the south, you can see why, any little disturbance coming through would have the ability of generating something. At this point I wouldn’t cancel any outdoor plans/events you may be thinking about especially from 3PM -10PM. If things can work out I think there will be many hours of dry time in the weekend.
The devil is in the details and unfortunately trying to predict things that don’t exist is rather confusing sometimes…to you and us!