Thunderstorm Chances

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This blog may be another one of those “in progress” blogs. I’ll try and provide updates as the day goes along. The concerns of course center on the storm chances this evening. My feeling is that the area, with the exception of NW MO this AM will stay dry through the day with the “opportunity” to pick up rain heading our way this evening through about midnight.

I think though that this is going to be a process. Reason being that the front itself is still a long ways away and even by later this afternoon the front is still towards the west of the region. Here is the RUC forecast for later this afternoon. My biggest concern is a lack of Gulf Moisture. Dewpoints as of this writing are only in the 40s to near 50 and they won’t come up much today since there isn’t much of a dewpoint change to the south of here. With all the wind blowing this afternoon, it’s possible that the dewpoints may actually drop off a few degrees to. Lower dewpoints DO NOT excite me much, let alone excite me about the prospects of severe weather in the region. I haven’t mentioned that at all this AM because I think the chances are pretty low despite the fact that the SPC has placed the area in a SLIGHT risk for severe weather. Here is that RUC forecast.

The front should be entering the region during the evening hours. We will be “capped” for the afternoon.

++++5PM Update++++

Well the front is on the back doorstep and moisture plus capping issues are a problem. In addition moisture convergence is lacking with the front itself and the instability isn’t the greatest. My feeling is that this will turn into “not much” for the metro with perhaps a thin line of storms developing towards the SE of KC. Here is the 4PM surface map.

 

Dewpoints are struggling right now. We’ve cracked 50° finally but it may be almost too late. Skies are definitely clouding up and you can see the front on radar as a thin line that MAY  develop some shower activity all of a sudden in the next several hours as it moves on through. Right now,according to the above map (dewpoints represented by the dash blue lines with the blue shading representing dewpoinjts in the 56°+ range) we just don’t have enough surface moisture to impress me all that much. The cold front itself is located where the wind arrows switch towards the NW…that places the front from near Falls City, NE to east of Manhattan (near Topeka) and extending down towards the Wichita area. Temperatures today made in into the 75-80°, which given the meager surface moisture and the lack of strong convergence along the front itself + a cap, just hasn’t been enough thus far to get things going.

Here is what I expect. from 6PM-10PM a thin line of broken rain showers with some t/shower activity will develop and mainly affect areas from KC southeastwards. For the metro, if nothing happens by 8PM, odds are we won’t get a thing out of this.

By the way, unless there is a big change, I’m not expecting any additional chances of rainfall for at least another week+.

++++11AM Update++++

The latest NAM is still pretty gung ho for rain in the area this evening, it also has our dewpoints around 60° and I fear that it is overestimating that surface moisture and as a result the instability. The latest HRRR model shows this for 8PM tonight…

This seems a bit more reasonable and while there may be rain out there again I’m not jumping up and down about a bunch.

+++++++++

Here is a surface map showing the colder air across the Central Plains states.

The temperatures are in RED. So it is cooler back there and highs tomorrow should be near 60 degrees.

Weekend still looks great.

So what am I expecting. At this point I think we are dry through 6-8PM. Then after that the front will head this way., There should be some storms ahead of the front and then some rain behind the front itself. That opportunity will linger through midnight or so, especially off towards the SE of KC.

After that, cooler and drier air will be moving into the region so that by tomorrow AM we’re down into the 40s.

The problem is after our chance fades away tonight, I don’t see much of an opportunity for additional rainfall for the next 7 days or so. So IF you miss out tonight and some will, you may need to drag the sprinklers around.

More as the day goes along.

Joe

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