Storm Chances Are The Trick

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The metro came oh so close to having a rainy start to the day but the complex of storms up north weakened before they could push into the heart of KC. They were very efficient rain producers however with some areas picking up close to 2-4″ of rainfall, especially around the Cameron area. Plattsburg checked in with 1.76″ so where it rained, it rained hard. In downtown KC we had a sprinkle and that was about it. St Joe had about .75″ at the airport there. KCI had a whooping .03″

Today the focus will be towards SC NE and SW IA for additional storm development over the next 6 hours or so. I don’t think anything will happen in the metro area as a result of various boundaries that are in place right now across the region. Our mid level temperatures are near 11°C and that will be tough to overcome, despite readings of 80-85° and dewpoints in the upper 60s. Not out of the question but I’m not expecting anything. Areas west and NW of the region are more under the gun, and with all the instability in the atmosphere, another big t/storm complex should organize out there and gradually move towards the east and maybe ESE. The SPC is highlighting an area that will be watched for the next couple of hours for a possible Severe T/storm Watch.

Should this area come together through the evening hours, we’ll need to watch for a potential outflow boundary to move towards the metro like this AM. That boundary would be undercutting some strong low level jetstream winds, helping to create lift. Whether or not it’s enough to overcome the cap in place, we’ll have to see. The potential though is there for storms later this evening into the overnight hours. Again, heavy rainfall and maybe some gusty winds and hail would be the main threats from the storms.

Plenty of heat and humidity are likely to grip the area through the weekend. Tomorrow’s forecast is contingent on cloud cover. More sun upper 80s with a heat index near 93°, more clouds…lower 80s for highs.

Saturday looks to be the hottest with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lighter winds will allow dewpoints to pool, which means a heat indices will be flirting with 95-100°. This MAY warrant the season’s first short Heat Advisory.

A cold front will enter the picture on SUN, the NAM is being discounted for it’s aggressive movement of the front through the area in the AM hours. The other models hold off till later in the day. We will be capped again on Sunday, but IF that cap breaks the potential for severe weather will exist Sunday afternoon/evening through the region. MUCH cooler and drier air will flow in behind the front, dropping readings below average for the first part of next week.

Take a look at the GFS forecast for MON AM…showing the cooler temperatures @ 5K feet moving down through the upper Midwest into the region.

Have a great Friday. I’ll try and update the blog 1st thing in the AM.

Joe

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