Rain…Yes…How Much is a Question

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Good morning…tell you what, when you’re doing a morning show for 5 1/2 straight hours and you’re a bit groggy to begin with, and the studio A/C goes out and it gets to 85°, I’m shocked I didn’t fall asleep during one of my weathercasts.

I wish today we would’ve had more weather around to talk about, but it is wonderful out, warming up nicely as I type this, and we’ll finish the day with highs in the 80s. Yesterday we hit 91° and it was interesting this AM when I got in. North Missouri was in the 50s while from Kansas City southwards it was in the upper 60s. Then the clouds parted and temperatures dropped nicely before sunrise. Earlier this AM Leavenworth dropped to 50°.

The forecast certainly gets trickier heading into tomorrow night and Thursday as we track the progress of a disturbance that will turn into an upper level area of low pressure as it drops through the middle part of the country. Where this thing goes will determine our Thursday weather. If it drops in farther west, cooler and rainier weather is expected. If it drops in farther NE, then intermittent showers are possible with highs well into the 60s. The GFS has been the most aggressive model with this system at times in digging it closer to the KC area.

The latest NAM is bring the developing and intensifying storm more towards Chicago than KC. Here is it’s forecast for Thursday.

Should this model be more correct, Thursday would actually be a decent day, with partly cloudy skies and highs well in the 60s. If last night’s GFS is more correct then Thursday is rainy and cold for the last day of May.

Actually the latest NAM even gives us some rainfall Wednesday morning thanks to a cluster of storms that will be moving through south central Kansas, and then it brings additional and more substantial rainfall through the western plains and into our region later Wednesday afternoon.  The early morning rain might happen, but the better chances would be towards the SW/S of the metro I think. Something to watch though for Wednesday morning. I do think the higher chances will be from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning.

Hey, did you know that so far in Oklahoma there has only been one tornado for the month of May? Now over the next couple of days there will a slightly higher risk of tornadoes, but the environment supports more hail/high winds than tornadoes down there. So far this month there have “only” been 122 reports of tornadoes, a number that will come down when the duplicate reports are weeded out. Last May there were 326 actual tornado touchdowns.

Heavy rainfall/flooding is the issue in the SE part of the country compliments of Beryl, the strongest tropical system to make US landfall in the month of May. It’s still churning away down there and creating locally heavy rainfall. Some parts of FL have already had more than 12″ of rainfall. Here is a look at doppler estimated rain totals.

Sort of interesting, if you look closely, you can actually see the bands of heavier rainfall curving from the SW to the NE. Here is a look at the visible satellite picture of the storm. Still pretty healthy looking!

We’ll keep an eye on the WED/THU rain scenario, regardless of that, some nice open window weather is heading this way later Thursday into Saturday for the region!


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