Developing Heat Wave!

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Here we go…it looks more and more likely that whatever surge in the weekend temperatures we experience on Sunday will be the appetizer to what is shaping up to be searing heat that will develop through the Plains and push our way. The timing of that heat wave is coming up on the blog but we still have to talk about some interesting weather beforehand.

Today though is wonderful with dewpoints in the 50s and temperatures with nearly no wind in the 80s…very pleasant but that late June sunshine certainly makes it feel rather toasty to be outside. We started this AM with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s (63° @ KCI and 57° in St Joseph)

Tomorrow we start to teeter into the heat. How hot it gets will be tied to several things. The most important of which an area of storms that may develop later today across NE. Here is the latest surface map showing the scenario.

Now how far S or SE those storms turn (considering they don’t even exist as of this writing…see why forecasting can be tough sometimes ;) ) will determine whether we see some rain in the region during the 1st part of the day and/or how much cloud cover influences the potential highs. More clouds and we may get stuck in the 80s for highs…more sunshine and highs should rebound to 90-95°. Again I’ll be watching the radar closely tomorrow AM for the potential of something to “surprise” the area. I do think folks from 36 highway northwards need to be a bit more “concerned” about something heading their way during the 1st part of Saturday.

From there the advertised blast of heat arrives Saturday night with increasing winds and then we’re full bore into it on Sunday as the winds drop off significantly as the day goes along. Regardless we are set up for the hottest day of the young summer season with highs near 100° in most areas. Some will exceed others may fall just short. The record by the way is 103° set back in 1988.

The good news is that a cold front will come through in the evening and “cooler” air will infiltrate the region Monday. We’ll start warm…tend to max out in the early afternoon and then sort of level off in the afternoon hours Monday with highs int he 80s to near 90°The air will also be drying out, so afternoon dewpoints near 70° on Sunday, we should see the dewpoints come back down into the 50s on Monday and Tuesday so it will be less hot and more comfortable.

From Wednesday on, unless there is a change in the scope off the flow off the Great Lakes, we will sizzle once again, and this time it may last for a bit as I’m suspecting that the season’s first “heat wave” will start to percolate through the Plains states. There is no real “official” definition for what a heatwave is, for any one part of the country. A heat wave in AK is different from a heat wave in OK. Traditionally we look for highs 95° or above for at least 3 straight days. I seem to remember a few times last year when highs weren’t at that level, but yet the dewpoints were close to 80° sending the heat index close to 110°. Technically NOT a heat wave but miserable just the same. Anyway, we’re forecasting 100° highs as early as THU and while there should be a small pullback by Saturday, we still think 95°+ heat will be the rule from WED-SAT (at least).

Elsewhere we’re watching the Gulf Of Mexico for the future development of what may become Debby. Still some disagreement in the modeling with the same differences as yesterday. GFS want to bring it to FL…EURO/Canadian towards TX. Regardless this thing will NOT directly affect us with much needed rainfall. Interesting to note that IF Debby forms it would be the 4th named storm of the season and a record for the most named storms so early in a hurricane season (before July 1st). Of course this is still somewhat of a speculation record, the advent of satellite data in the tropics in the early 60s changed everything when it came to tropical storm identification/location. It’s NOT out of the question this has happened before the satellite era, except because of a lack of data we had no idea on the existence of other tropical systems.

Finally real relief is happening back east after another hot day yesterday with numerous daily and even some monthly record highs set. Including some of the co-operative observers about 111 records were tied or broken yesterday. Highs though are in the process of coming wayyyy down and cooler than average weather is expected there through Wednesday!

Remember you hot weather safety, especially on Sunday. If you’re heading out to the K this weekend, especially Sunday be alert and IF you’re siting in the sunshine REALLY be alert. A lack of wind should create stifling conditions out there!

Joe

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