Intense Heat Lingers For Two More Days
We’re getting there. The light at the end of the long tunnel, as I referred to the situation earlier in the week, is getting brighter and brighter. While it won’t be sweater weather, it should feel somewhat more comfortable, although there continues to be the main issue of a drought that we still can’t shake. Perhaps we can ease it for some lucky ones Saturday evening into Saturday night.
Concerning the drought aspect of this blog, see yesterday’s blog for a more thorough write-up about how most of the area is now in a severe drought. Here is another image to show you how much behind we are as far as rainfall goes for the last few months. KCI, as well as many others, are some 6-10″ behind average since 4/1.
Click on that image. While the map is centered on KS (I couldn’t get a MO side map) I think you can clearly see how much of the region is really hurting when it comes to rainfall.
Here is a wider view showing that the drought is certainly a big problem, not only for us but for the corn belt through the Ozarks, amongst other parts of the country.
Here is a close-up map showing our situation. Again, click on these images to make them more readable.
So we need rain in the worst kind of way. The early AM run of the GFS does show some rain over the next 16 days or so. Remember, however, with this type of heat and dry airmass we’re evaporating at the rate of close to 1/4″ of moisture from the soil/day. So we really need 1-2″ just to keep up with the heat per week. So when the models are spitting out 1-2″ over a two week-lus period. That is still not so great.
The EURO is even LESS encouraging through the next 10 days with amounts generally under 1/2″!
Potential for Severe Weather
Our best chance at this point appears to be from the 36 Highway corridor through the metro and southwards Saturday evening util about midnight or so as a cold front will be punching into this brutally hot airmass. Highs on Friday and Saturday should be somewhere in the 103-106° range. As the front pushes into that hot airmass, we should at least see some convection develop. How much activity there really is still a large issue but there should be some out there. There would also be the potential of some severe weather Saturday evening in the form of gusty winds. You can get some extreme downburst winds in these scenarios where the air aloft is initially pretty darn dry. The rainfall in the clouds evaporate and the air in the clouds gets cooler. That cooler air then is forced to the ground and you can get some microburst activity out of the stronger cells. Something that I’ll be watching for Saturday evening. The timing appears to be after 6PM or so as the front is draped in along the I-70 corridor.
Here is the NAM simulated radar for midnight early Sunday AM. Not a lot of activity, but at least there is something.
From there we should see a drop in the highs by about 10-15° from Sunday through Tuesday. The weather on Monday and Tuesday at this point looks real good with decent — by KC standards — humidity and temperatures between 85-90 or so. Perfect timing for all the All Star events coming up.
From there it will start to heat up again, but I’m not expecting 100° to return for awhile.
Have a great Friday and I’ll update the blog again Saturday afternoon as I’ll be tracking that cold front moving into northern Missouri!