Heat Wave Breaks Down! Drought Persists

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With north winds now the breakdown of the heat has begun. A combination of cloud cover and very weak cool air moving in from the north should ensure that today’s highs are in the 90-95° for most of the region. There are also some scattered storms in the region that may persist for the rest of the day and have been on the increase towards the north of the KC metro area. These storms will send out various outflows and should then fire additional storms off and on through this evening. Chances of rain in any one spot are about 30-40% and while not everyone will see moisture from this, this will be the our best chance of seeing rainfall in the region for quite some time again.

The problem is that while the core of the heat has been and will be shoved to the west aloft, the pattern is still a dry one. Dewpoints today will be in the 67-72° range which is seasonably muggy air for this time of the year. The dewpoints will be coming down significantly over the next 36 hours as drier NE winds bring in more comfortable air. Highs MON-WED should be in the 87-92° and with lower dewpoints later tomorrow and Tuesday it will be comfortable. Without those dewpoints though, we continue to evaporate what little moisture is in the soil and the drought will worsen, aside from some short term relief for a few areas today.

It really is remarkable to look at the latest GFS and watch it have a hole in the best rainfall totals right around the KC area…

 

That 1/4″ of rainfall is confined to the 1st couple of days in the forecast of the early AM run of the GFS. From there on out it is dry. The EURO agrees with about 1/2″ of rain over the next 10 days, most occurring in the next 24 hours. So again whatever happens needs to happen in the next 24 hours!

This has been incredible heat for many areas of the country. I saw this picture on my twitter account…taken from Washington DC where yesterday the temperatures were close to and above 105° in some areas. The daily record of 105 degrees was the 2nd highest temperature ever. Remember those temperatures are taken in the shade. Out in the sunshine and on the pavement those numbers can approach 140-150 degrees. What can happen on a runway. Check it out. Not sure is this is a true picture…but I guess it’s possible.

Notice that the wheels of the plane have sunken into the pavement. Again I’ll assume this picture is real…so that’s pretty impressive.

Have a great day and enjoy the clouds

Joe

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