If You Think It’s Hot Now…

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Oh boy…here we go. Today will actually be the “reasonable” day in the forecast through next Wednesday (at least). Between Saturday and next Wednesday though, it will not be fit for man nor beast out there in the afternoon hours. We’ll have a couple of decent hours in the early AM around and just after daybreak, but from about 10AM-6PM or so from tomorrow through Wednesday it looks very unpleasant as we see some of the hottest air we’ve seen in years.

We all remember how hot last summer was…the hottest temperature then was 107° in early August. The numbers that are in our long range forecast are even higher than that. At this point the only question is when and how high. I still feel the max heat will occur Sunday through Wednesday and at this point we’re forecasting highs between 105-110°. The only saving grace, and typically the only way we can get that hot is that the air will be dry. So IF you’ve always wanted to know what it’s like to live in the Desert SW now will be your opportunity. Granted, typically the desert areas are even drier with lower dewpoints, but we should see our dewpoints drop into the 50s, which we’ve seen numerous times already in these heatwaves that have passed but at least our heat index readings will be about the same as the temperatures. It’s not out of the question that the heat index may actually be lower than the actual air temperatures.

What else is there really to say. Yesterday was the 12th day of the summer with highs 100° or above. That moves this summer into 17th place (tied) in terms of the number of 100° days (average is about 3). The record is 53 and for those with better memories back in 1988 we did it 16 times and in 1980 we did it 17 times. Odds favor us to match 1980 by next Wednesday. I think that would then tie us for 8th in terms of the number of 100 degree days in a year. Today will also be the 27th straight day of highs 90°+. that is a number that will continue to grow.

In terms of the drought situation…see yesterday’s blog for more details on the latest drought report that was issued. Nothing but bad news there concerning MO/KS. At this point, and I suspect this may not stand for the rest of the month…but with .12″ of rainfall @ KCI, right now we are tied with 2003 as the driest July in KC weather history. As we know however this drought has been building up for over 3 months…so how does this drought so far in terms of year to date numbers compare to other historical droughts for the KC area. The NWS has created this cool image to show how we’re pacing compared to other drought years.

The key thing to look at is the solid RED line…notice how at this point we are pacing behind 1953 in terms of wetness but ahead of 1934/36 and 1988. One thing that you should remember is that this drought started in April…so year to date stats really don’t mean a lot. We were wet for the 2 of the first 3 months of the year. This drought has been compounded by extreme dryness all of a sudden in April and a lack of heavy snowcover through the winter season that would’ve slowly melted into the soils helping to recharge them through the winter season

From a temperature standpoint though, we are on pace for the hottest year in KC weather history, ahead of 2006 and 1946 through the middle of July at least.

So how hot can it get?

Joe

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