Another Disturbance & A Cold Front

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Another in a series of disturbances coming off the Rockies will help keep temperatures today from getting to out of hand. Clouds will be on the increase as the late AM moves along and with the clouds and a lack of wind. highs again today should be around 90-95° or so. Now the question is can we get some rainfall?

The disturbance in question is near the Manhattan area now and slowly spinning this way.

It’s more apparent on the satellite loops this AM. There is some rain associated with this as well. Take a look at the radar loops here. So we have some rain out there and we’ll heat up into the 90s today. The problem is that these disturbances aren’t strong enough in the afternoon to generate much more than cloud cover as they usually weaken quite a bit towards lunch. I can’t rule out some scattered showers with this later today since our dewpoints are a bit higher so far this AM but at this point I’m not too impressed. I think we can count on some relief from the extreme heat though for another day at least. Speaking of the extreme heat…yesterday Oklahoma City hit 112°, one degree shy of their all-time hottest day of 113°. Check out how hot they’ve were yesterday.

Here is the latest surface map…the leading edge of the heat is just tot he south of the area again…and it’s been sitting there for a few days.

The clouds coming today should keep it to the south.

The next item of interest s a decent August cold front that will drop our highs back to seasonable levels and also allow overnight lows to be, perhaps a bit below average for a couple of mornings. The front is due in sometime tomorrow around or just after lunch. So the questions for tomorrow are 1) how hot can we get before the front gets here 2) will there be any convection ahead of the front in the AM with associated clouds determining #1 and 3) will there be rain in the PM in the instability, especially on the MO side (severe weather?).

The front is forecast to bisect the region in the early PM as depicted by the latest NAM model.

Behind the front the air will be drier and very reasonable for August. That air should spread in tomorrow evening. IF there is no cloud cover ahead of the front, we can make a serious run to 100°+ before the front arrives, the front will come through in the early PM and temperatures may actually drop a few degrees later tomorrow afternoon as the cooler air spreads in. The front should create at least scattered storms, although IF there are clouds ahead of the front and hence cooler temperatures, combined with a decent cap it might be tough to get anything going. The higher chances to me look to be on the MO side. How much KC is involved with this is tough to say, but I think the chances in areas SE and E of the metro are better for tomorrow PM…maybe some borderline severe wind gusts from the storms as well.

Sunday should be nice with highs near 90°.

The heat will attempt to run back towards us after that with the potential, while low at this point of some scattered AM storms. Later next week the heat may try to reestablish itself a bit more.

A lot going on, let’s enjoy the clouds though today

Joe

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