Cold Front On The Move!

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Looking at radar late this morning is again a thing of frustration. There is actually good rain out there, but you’d never no it from looking outside your window around the KC area. All the rain this AM was across N MO and they’re doing OK with a decent coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Doppler radar estimates indicate upwards of 1″ has fallen with decent coverage of 1/2″ of rainfall north of the 136 highway corridor. Here is a look at the rainfall estimates…

We should see more sunshine later this AM and early this afternoon, however a decent for August cold front is moving in rather quickly this AM and in advance of the front a wind shift line (trof) has already pushed across the north part of the metro. The real cold front, marked by gustier NW winds is still across NE and N KS. That should move in this afternoon. Here is the latest surface map from 10AM

The question is whether or not we can get some convection with the front (doubtful for KC) or behind the front (possible for KC). Any convection with the front would probably be towards the S/SE/E of the metro. That would be after 3PM today. Anything behind the front is iffy at best UNLESS there could be another monsoonal ripple that can move through the Plains states which at this point I don’t see. My best guess is that the better chances of a decent rain today will be from Columbia to Warrensburg to Sedalia to Butler to Pleasanton, KS and points south and east. Hopefully that could change and we could squeak out a little rain before midnight closer to the metro itself.

Behind the front cooler and drier air will move in allowing highs tomorrow to be in the 85-90° range with lows in the 60-65 range with some 50s across N MO possible. The cooler air will be short-lived and we should start warming up again on Monday and may make a run towards 100° on Tuesday before another boundary tries to slide this way Tuesday night and allow highs to back off a few degrees from Wednesday on.

The upper air maps continue to point to the worst of the heat being shoved to our west and south for most of the longer range (5-10 days). While our highs should stay in the 95-100° range…excessive heat (105-110°) at this point is not expected for awhile. There may be a day or two in there that we could go above 100°.

That can’t be said across OK where heat and fire will combine to bring dangerous conditions to the state. Today will be another day with highs between 110-115° and more records will tumble and with the gusty SW winds, especially south of the I-44 corridor, more wildfires are possible.

The tropics have popped in the last few days. Ernesto will pass south of Jamaica tomorrow and Florence formed way out towards Africa.

Have a great weekend and I’;ll see you again on Monday.

Joe

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