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A Brief Temperature Spike?

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It’s been just wonderful around these parts for the last several days and this AM has been no exception. Lows dropped to 53° @ KCI and 48° in St Joseph. That is now the 3rd AM with lows in the 40s in St Joe…all in the middle part of August of all things. Our average temperature @ KCI is now 1.6° below average for the month. Our average temperature this month is 76.3°. That is almost 9° less hot than July and about 1° cooler (so far) than June.

If summer ended today, this summer all of a sudden isn’t nearly as hot overall as it was appearing a few weeks ago where I think we were on pace to have our 5th hottest summer, or close to it…we’ve rapidly been tanking in the averages and now are down to a tie for 16th hottest. again that is IF summer ended today, which as we all know it doesn’t. Another 2 weeks to go for meteorological summer and we find ourselves looking at a warm-up for the next few days.

One of the reasons why we’re seeing this erosion of average temperatures is that the lows have been dropping so much…we’ve had a LOT of below average lows, some 13 in a row, and when lows start out 10-15° below average, it’s tough to make it up for highs, we’d have to be in the upper 90s to lower 100s daily just to average out the cool lows and thankfully that hasn’t been the case either.

There does appear however that warmer/hotter air will be moving through the Plains states over the next few days, while AM lows will still be pleasant they will be coming up somewhat, and the 45-55° starts to the day will become a fading memory rather quickly. Just how hot it can get is still a question in my mind. The NAM guidance has been way to warm past 24 hours in its forecasting, whereas the GFS surface temperature forecasts has been worthless to use all summer long because of it’s cool bias.

So we need to look at the levels above the surface to get an idea of the warmth of the atmosphere and try to figure out how warm it can get here at the surface. Lately not an issue for us, but last night the NAM really brought in some hot air aloft late Tuesday int  Wednesday especially. Here is a look at temperatures at about 3000 feet and with temperatures at that level so warm, we may see a jump in our highs into the mid 90s on Wednesday should this pan out.

The GFS is noticeably cooler at his level. The NAM has been way overdone lately in warming the atmosphere up so much. So it’s a tricky forecast. The NAM model has a lot of wind moving through the region, which can support some pretty hot temperatures considering the drought in place.

What does this all mean…odds are increasing that we’ll see 90-95° highs on Wednesday with some upside potential to that. Something just doesn’t look right to me concerning these forecasts though, and I wonder if their too warm for us.

More importantly, can we get some rainfall? we are now close to 14.5″ below average since 4/1. Whatever systems come out of the west or SW still look to be moisture starved as they move towards us as the surface moisture still looks awfully meager for the next few days. So maybe we get some cloud cover at times. Later in the week we may be able to get some 60-65° dewpoints back here with some more humid air possible over the next weekend. That could help the cause for storms, especially over the weekend. There may be some minor rains in the region on Friday, but perhaps the more significant chances come about over the next weekend. For the 1st time in forever the EURO is showing 1-2″ rainfall amounts from Saturday through next Tuesday (28th).

I haven’t talked much about the tropics this year, because even though there have been numerous minor storms, the next storm name is Isaac, mostly they’ve been “fish” storms. Gordon blasted through the Azores yesterday and was the strongest storm of the season so far at one point.with winds of 110 MPH. Here is what the Hurricane Center is watching today.

The swirl of note is #1 that the models have keyed in on and are showing to become Isaac. This may threaten the US later in the weekend or early next week. That’s IF it holds together and can get through a region of shear and dry air, which have been knocking a lot of storms down this season. It’ll be something to watch though and the SE part of the country will be keying in on this as the next 5 days roll along.

That’s about it for today. Have a great Monday!

Joe

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