Rainfall Potential Is High

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This by no means will break the drought, it would take about 10-15 of these type set-ups to finally eliminate the drought for most areas and whatever is going to happen over the next few days needs to happen by the end of the day on Sunday, because when this opportunity leaves us later in the weekend, that’s it again for another long period of time as next week certainly looks to be dry and hot again.

As I mentioned yesterday, just using 1″ of rainfall as a baseline over the next few days, while during any other summer would be great, in a drought summer the perspective is that we average about 1″ of rain a week so IF we can manage that we’ll finally have an average week of rain which we haven’t seen on a large scale since about the first day of astronomical summer.

The models have slowly been ratcheting down their rainfall forecasts. Some will do very well I think over the next few days with the potential of 1-2 1/2″ of rainfall somewhere in our region. To me the odds favor N MO and NE KS for this potential. There may be some rather heavy downpours associated with these set-ups as the atmosphere will be loaded with moisture which is a good thing! There is some upside potential as well so between the rain and the runoff (since the soil is so baked and hard there will be more runoff than usual) hopefully while the ground should get a good drink of water we should also see some recharging of the ponds/lakes/streams that are so important for future irrigation.

Closer in to the metro the rainfall while likely and decent (with upside to the totals) is a little more problematic. Mainly for the timing and also for the totals. The modelling has been trending down with the totals over the last few runs. The 12Z data yesterday had 1.4-1.8″ of rainfall…the 18Z data yesterday had .65-1.4″ of rain…the 00Z data had ,83-1.22″ of rain and the 6Z data had ,93-.7″ of rainfall. All this data was for KCI. The rainfall totals is the hardest thing for the models to predict. There are just so many variables/interactions that the modelling can’t really see. They can show potential though and that has to be respected.

This AM alone there has been a slow moving disturbance across NC KS giving areas out there a long, steady and sometimes heavy amount of rainfall. Manhattan has had more than 2″ of rain so far today, giving them a monthly total of over3″ and since June 1st…close to 8″ of rain. We’ve had less than half that since June 1st. So you can see that IF we can get these things to track perfectly there will be some heavy rainfall. Here is a look at rainfall totals via the NWS radar in Topeka.

The timing a=of all this is also very tricky. Most of today from KC southeastwards should be fine. Clouds will keep highs from reaching 90° though, odds are we’ll settle in somewhere around 85°. You can see the extent of the cloud cover with the latest visible satellite picture.

Areas with more sunshine well to the SE and E of KC will again see highs up into the 90s today.

That moisture plume that goes all the way into TX is the key for us to tap into over the next few days.

So if you’re trying to make plans…1) be prepared for rain at any point tomorrow. Especially the farther into KS you get. It shouldn’t rain all day, and I think there will be some hours of dryness out there.  2) the lowest rain chances will be SE of KC tomorrow 3) the highest chances and the best totals should come tomorrow night into Sunday. This is where the KC metro should see heavier totals and rainfall. 4) temperatures may bounce all over the place tomorrow and potentially may be only in the 70s on Sunday with the rainfall in the region. 5) At this point I’m going to forecast 1/4-1″ of rain for the metro with 1-3″ of rain possible from Topeka to Maryville. 6) Overall areas farther SE from the metro will see less, perhaps under 1/2″ out of this. 7) There is upside potential to this as mentioned earlier IF we can get a disturbance or two to track closer to the metro.

We’re so close to getting dumped on with rainfall, IF we could see a 100 mile shift southeastwards we’d be in business

Finally Isaac, which has strengthened somewhat in terms of wind speeds (50 MPH) but while the satellite images are decent, this is still a disorganized mess with several centers of circulation. There is a great outflow established aloft as the clouds are spiraling outwards very nicely. There is a tremendous amount of warm water for this thing to get fuel from and right now there is little shear, so that it can stay together. So many things in it’s favor, yet for days it’s just kind of existed. Here are the satellite images showing the storm.

It looks like there is also some dry air working into the storm as well from the north, perhaps being generated by downsloping winds of Hispaniola. Dry air is not a friend of these things and it’s just another reason why development of this storm has been slow to occur. The latest track of the storm takes it towards the FL Panhandle early next week. The EURO was actually taking this thing up towards us later next week, however that 1% chance is looking like a 1/2% chance today. Odds are this thing will move more towards the SE part of the country and be a slow-mover at that, so heavy rainfall is becoming more likely in AL, GA and the Carolinas as opposed to the southern/central Plains area.

Like I said, we NEED to have this pan out in our favor, because after this, the chances are not good for additional rainfall

Joe

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