Late Week Rainmaker

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I haven’t really delved too much into the ongoing drought in the region that is still there and worsening slowly. Since April 1st we are more than 17″ below average for rainfall @ KCI and since January 1st most of the region is still 10-15″ below average with the exception of the Chillicothe area. The drought report map that came out late last week is still not good. It’s not as bad as it was about 5 weeks ago, but it’s still not a good map heading into the winter season.

 

You can clearly see most of the area is still in the extreme to severe categories. Before the rain from Isaac fell though almost all of us were in the “exceptional” category so again not as bad as it could be but not good.

There is some hope I think for somewhat widespread 1/2-1″ amounts of rain to fall over the course of a couple of days later int he week. This will be tied to our storm that I’ve blogged about for the last week or so, that’s still off the west coast. There are signs that it will eventually work it’s way towards Southern CA (giving them some rain) and then slowly move across the SW part of the country before moving through the Plains states. The timing is still a bit uncertain (FRI-SAT) but the potential is looking better for some much needed rainfall.

October marks the beginning of a decrease in average monthly precipitation totals that eventually bottom out in January before coming back up again towards next Spring. As a matter of fact from 10/1 to the end of February we average about 9 1/2″ of moisture, that’s really not a lot when you consider that’s close to our average 2 month total for April/May so what we can get in these months is certainly welcome and more so this season.

The storm in question is the blog of ,moisture showing up on the Water Vapor image off the northern coast of CA.

 

Here is the way the GFS handles things over the next 7 days or so…you can see the storm moving from the CA area through the SW into the Southern Rockies then it actually strengthens a bit as it moves into the Plains states.

 

This just has to give us some rain…hopefully as the warmer air and moisture moves up later THU into FRI and then again as storms erupt in the Plains states later FRI and moves our way into SAT…the rain would be moving rather quickly so I’m not overly optimistic that we can get over 2″ out of this system. Should the storm continue on this forecasted pace, Sunday looks to be the better of the 2 weekend days.

Since this storm is coming from the Pacific and taking the southern path, there will be little cold air behind it so it won’t tap into the northern stream of chillier air. As far as the risk of severe weather goes, that is more of a timing issue and one that can’t be determined from so far away, we’ll deal with that chance more in-depth as we get towards later in the week.

Finally this AM, how about a little snow…lets go to the top of Mt Washington in N NH for a look at their webcam…at an elevation of almost 6300 feet they like to say they are home to the “World’s Worst Weather.” I’m not sure about that but they do have snow on the ground this AM.

 

Have a great day and thanks for reading the FOX 4 weather blog once again!

Joe

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