We Go Up And Down

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This will be a neat fall week for us weather fanatics, not so much because we’re going to get a lot more rainfall…as a matter of fact, IF we get any rain on Wednesday, it would be scattered and light and really after that we may be starting another stretch of nice fall weather…but I think the reason why it will be interesting is that there will be several airmasses moving through the Plains states and changing our weather every other day or so.

The 1st airmass is going to be a warm one, and today and tomorrow we should see highs 10+° above average. The warm airmass was talked about yesterday and we may have some wind issues tomorrow as SW winds of 20-30 MPH blow on through. The next airmass will be a chillier one and that will arrive on Wednesday as the winds switch towards the NW at 20-30+ MPH and cooler air descends through the Plains states. This next airmass will be connected to to an upper level storm that will plunge through the midsection of the country. You can clearly see it here on this map as the closed storm early Thursday AM.

There will be a LOT of energy with this storm, but the moisture will be VERY limited ahead of it. as far as temperatures go, let’s go up to about 3000′ feet or so and you can also see the chunk of cold air it’s bring down with it.

Those temperatures are in °C, so the 10 line is about 50° and the 0° line is in 32°, so the air will be chilly. Hence the reason why I’m forecasting temperatures in the 50s for THU/FRI. The big thing will be cloud cover. More clouds and temperatures are a struggle, less clouds and we may moderate this airmass rather quickly.

The good news is look what happens towards the weekend. As is typical for October things are moving along FAST. So almost as quickly as the chilly air moves in, it will again move out and as a result we’ll warm-up nicely. Here is a look at the GFS forecast for the temperatures @ 5000 feet for early next weekend. Notice that the colder air has moved away and we are warming up nicely again.

That +15° line is representative of temperatures at that level of almost 60°. If it’s that warm up there, with full sunshine and enough wind in the region, we’ll mix the atmosphere nicely and should see highs over the weekend surging into the 70s+, especially for Sunday! Right now all the race action out at KS Speedway looks great, maybe a tad on the breezy side though!

This mild airmass should last through the early part of next week (at least). So after a couple of chilly/blustery late week days, it looks great from there.

That’s about it for today. Have a great Monday and I’ll see you tonight at 5/6 and then after the Cardinals/Giants game…probably around 10:30-10:45 or so.

Joe

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