On The Snow Watch
I could break these out more, but IF you want a good representation of the snowfall (1-3″) S/SE side of the metro go to our FB pages, there are hundreds of snow totals on there.
The highest reports seem to point to about 3″ in a few areas, but numerous 1-2″ in there. Also watch for wet roads to turn slick now that the sun has gone down. for the remainder of the metro and points N/W, no issues tonight.
After analyzing radar trends here is what I’m going with for the 5PM newscast. I may tweak this may a bit b4 showtime but I think you get the idea. Many of you in KC from I-35 west/north may see little if any snow at all.
As a result of this forecast for most of KC odds DO NOT favor 1″ of snow or more…maybe SE side of metro could do it, I’m dropping the FOX 4 Snowfall Potential Index
I’m not going to change my FOX 4 Snowfall Potential Index yet. This AM I jumped it up to a 7 and I think I’ll keep it there this afternoon, because here we are still several hours away from the “storm” and by no means is this an easy forecast.
Clouds has overspread most of the area this morning and the bottom of the clouds are at about 7-8,000 feet or so. There has been some “virga” out there, you can see the bottom of the clouds and precipitation falling, but it is evaporating in the drier air beneath the clouds. There are some thin lines of snow and sleet showing up on radar as well early this afternoon. Here is the radar image from the NWS in Pleasant Hill as I started this blog.
As of this writing there are two SW to NE oriented bands of precipitation, much of which seems to be virga but some of that is reaching the ground. That band that to the SW of KC, I’m wondering IF that is the band that will continue growing NEwards and be the cutoff to who gets some snow and accums, and who doesn’t. I’ve roughly outlined the possible NW extent of the snow in a dashed black line.
As far as the modelling data goes, the morning runs were a pretty sharp comedown off the overnight runs in terms of snow accumulations. I still think a dusting to 2″ is a decent forecast for the KC area and SEwards. Again as was emphasized this AM, going 25 miles N or NW of KC and you may not get anything at all. The higher res NAM model, which many forecasters don’t even look at, even though they should, especially in these situations because the snow is banded, and the coarser resolution of the other models may not be able to pick up the details as well seems to follow my thinking somewhat.
You can see that there are pockets of 1″ snows in there and it won’t take too much to “connect” the dots if you will and get a stripe of 1″ snows on the SE side of the metro. The idea that I-35 give or take about 10-20 miles may serve as a psuedo cutoff is certainly in play with this as well. The latest RAP model is also indicative of a sharp cutoff to the NW of KC.
If you click on the image to make it larger, you can see that there does appear to be some upside potential to the amounts, IF we can get radar to fill in.
The “storm” is really being aided by jetstream winds, and our position in KC with regards to where the jetstream will be later this afternoon. Since the jetstream will be right on top of the area, and there are jet streaks within the jetstream (areas of higher winds) we have to monitor where those jet streaks will go, because depending on their position (jet streaks) there could be enhanced areas of rising air. The RAP model of forecasting our area to be in one of these favored positions.
Whereas NE KS and NW MO will be in an area of the jet streak that is marked by sinking air.
Just because this is favorable to us, doesn’t mean we’ll get a bunch of snow here, but it is concerning that if we can get the snow to fill in, there could be some enhancement to the snow amounts for areas from KC southeastwards. Just another reason why I don’t want to fiddle to much with my forecast.
IF by 7-8PM we’re not into a decent snowband, odds favor us getting little to no snow out of this of any significance. These jet streaks move VERY fast so the window of rising air helping to create the snow will be very short-lived!
After this the forecast is chilly through Wednesday, with perhaps some late week moderation, followed by a stronger shot of cold air in about 9-10 days or so. Since I’m not prepared to call this a big storm, there are no big storms in our immediate 5-7 days+ future.
Should conditions change and/or the snow forecast changes a lot, like being taken out or upped, I’ll update the top of the blog for you.