Quick Hitting Snow This Evening

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Boy try and take a 1/2 day from looking at weather data and trying to recover from a cold which isn’t getting better yet, and everything goes haywire.

The data for the last 18 hours has slowly been pulling our possible snow-maker farther and farther to the NW. This has resulted in some rather wholesale changes tot he forecast which MT updated last night and I’ll continue to fine tune as the afternoon moves along. Look for another blog update around 2PM or so, and then expended weathercasts during our evening news at 5PM and then later tonight (perhaps after the snow starts winding down) after the football game…probably around 10:30 or 11PM.

+++9AM Note+++

New data NOT very exciting for a lot of an accumulation. We are on the far NW side of this “storm” so lets track it this afternoon.

+++++++++++++

So what do we have going on? There is disturbance in the flow that will be moving towards the NE very quickly. Radar returns are showing the atmosphere already slowly saturating across SC KS with returns on radar NOT reaching the ground as of this writing. This is a signal that the rising air is saturating the atmosphere down there, and with the flow int he mid levels being from the SW to the NE, this saturation will occur here later this AM. The snow should start spreading from the SW to the NE during the middle part of the afternoon and we should be getting into it by 4-6PM his evening.

sat

As the snow falls, it should stick rather quickly, although with the roads being slightly warmer, there may be some melting at first. Assuming the snow falls heavy enough, that won’t last that long and the potential for slick conditions will develop quickly this evening through midnight tonight. Hopefully there will be some pre-treating going on to help the cause a bit.

The “worst” part of the storm will be from 6PM-10PM or so. at this point upwards of a dusting to upwards of 2″ are possible in the KC area, and there will be a VERY sharp cutoff to the snow accumulations across the NW side of the area…from St Joe to Leavenworth looks to be the NW side of this thing. The snow may start to have a banded appearance on radar, which would enhance some of the totals a bit. This appears more likely just to the SE of the metro, so some 4″ snows are not out of the question for somebody, especially to the south of the metro. It’s something that needs watching because these are the type of disturbances that produce some forecast busts on the low side of things. What I’m trying to say is IF this lasts a couple of extra hours or IF the heavier bands of snow set up along the I-35 corridor, we could see an uptick in the snow in KC proper.

So here is the timeline for today.

Now through 3PM: Clouds thicken and lower as the atmosphere saturates. (During the early afternoon snow should be developing across SC KS and moving NE)

3PM-6PM: Some snow (light at first) overspreads the metro…initial melting on the roads

6PM-10PM: Light to perhaps a few bands of moderate snow at times, need to watch for some heavier bands somewhere in the region. This should be the “worst” of the storm. Accumulations should range from a dusting to upwards of 2″ through the metro and S/SE of KC. Should those heavier bands set up closer to the metro, there is some upside potential to this.

10PM-2AM: Snow should wind down

I’m telling you now that this is a very fluid situation and we could get missed by this entirely, or at least the metro could. I don’t think that is going to happen, but remember I’m trying to forecast snow that doesn’t even exist. Think about that for a second.

Joe

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