Joe’s Wx Blog: Stuck in the yuck!

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Well you’d never know that today is the start of meteorological spring with the cold gray and occasional flurries that continue to plague the region. We’re are truly stuck in the “yuck” and with the snow on the ground helping to chill the air down just above the surface…and with the cold air and the moisture combined, that means a lot of cloud cover.

The clouds aren’t that thick, and once you get above 5-6K feet, skies start to clear out, so in reality this cloud deck is only about 2K feet think, and if we could just shake it out a bit things will be brighter and we could see some “milder” weather. As to the extent of the cloud cover, it’s rather broad and extensive.

So what will it take for us to break this “yuck”. Well we need the clouds to start moving more towards the east and that should start happening more towards tomorrow AM. I do think we’ll see at least some sunshine tomorrow. The issue for tomorrow is that we need the clouds to clear out quick in the AM, because if they don’t break up, with the light winds aloft it may be tough to break out up the stagnant moisture that will be stuck on top.

While we may be able to break up the clouds a bit over the weekend, they never will be far away as clouds will be moving through the weekend.

Our next weather maker will be a system that is now in the NE Pacific Ocean that will be moving through the NW part of the country.

That system will be dropping down into Western WA by Sunday afternoon and then will be heading towards Central NE by Monday afternoon. From there, at this point the track of the storm is forecast to be right on top of KC. Interestingly, that track, while interesting, is NOT the most favorable track for us to get an accumulating snow. If you want more snow, and that is quickly turning into minority of folks, you want the track of the storm to be farther westwards, more towards Manhattan, that then would place our area in the more favorable NE quad of the disturbance where there is better lifting to the atmosphere. the latest GFS model is suggesting this idea, meaning more of an event to the NE of the metro.

ScreenHunter_04 Mar. 01 12.01

The Canadian model shows somewhat of the same idea…

ScreenHunter_05 Mar. 01 12.02

Now it’s VERY important to note that this is still some 3+ days away and I wouldn’t be surprised IF the storm does indeed track farther to the west, placing the KC area in a more favorable accumulation track. To me at this point it’s a low end risk, but It’s something that I’ll be watching for you over the weekend. By the way, this feature may turn into another decent snowstorm for the folks back across the NE part of the country.

Concerning the Winter season (DEC-FEB) our average temperature was 33.7° which was 2.5° above average for the season. We had 17 days with highs under 32° which was about 8 days lower than average, in other words we average about 25 days below 32° for highs.

Finally on this Friday afternoon, the latest drought report came out yesterday, taking into account the precipitation in the area through Tuesday AM or so and things are improving…we are still though considered under a severe drought though.

Here is a look on the MO side first.

What’s interesting to note, is that the speed of changes can appear glacial at times but when you look at the big picture, say the last 6 months or so, the terrain of the worst of the drought have shrunk considerably for MO. In terms of the “severe” level since the start of 2013, we’ve cut that category in half (40>20%) and totally eliminated the Extreme drought category.

Meanwhile on the KS side things are still rough.

We have cut the “extreme” drought status about 10% since the start of the new year but the entire state is still under “severe” drought status and a lot of the state is under extreme or exceptional drought status.

You can see the whys to the improvement on the MO side by taking a look at the precipitation in relation to average for the Midwest and the High Plains.

ScreenHunter_06 Mar. 01 12.24

ScreenHunter_07 Mar. 01 12.25

The darker greens and blues/purples represent above average precipitation amounts over the last 3 months…

Again the key to all this will be the spring time rainfall as we head towards the summer months…that will go a long way in determining if we’ve cracked the back of the drought.

That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend and I’ll be tracking the next storm for you on the blog and on the air!



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