Joe’s Wx Blog: Colder/Snow update

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2PM Update:

Well the front has moved through most of the region and the colder air has moved in. As of the Noon hour temperatures are in the upper 30s and will drop a few more degrees later this afternoon. The good news is that, as you can tell from the radar below, the snow off to the west of here is VERY ragged and it really doesn’t look impressive for it to make it to us overnight tonight. Could there be some flakes of snow…yes and there probably will be towards tomorrow AM somewhere in the region, but in terms of Metro problems, I just don’t see it and I’ve been pretty consistent in that thinking all weekend long.

Now, the thing I mentioned this AM still holds try, although we are drying out a bit, should there be moisture/dampness on the roads tonight and with temperatures falling below freezing, there may be some issues on the bridges and overpasses + any puddles that may freeze.

The NWS also has cancelled the Winter Weather Advisory for the NW part pf MO so any accumulations up there will be under 2″ I think if even that much. Here is the 1PM surface map, there are still some areas holding on to the 50° towards the SE of the metro…

sfc

Again the temperatures are in RED if you click on the map above.

So let’s turn this update into a good news weather update. While I anticipate cold weather to linger for another couple of days, the clouds tomorrow will take a bit of time to clear out since it’s March we should still pop to about 35-40° in the afternoon. There will be a reinforcing shot of cool air on Tuesday so 40-45° looks good there and then we’re near 50° on Wednesday. After that though we should pop to near 60-65° for the end of the week into perhaps next weekend. The flow aloft will be flattening out and this means a zonal west to east flow through the Plains states. This is usually very good news for us in the Springtime. Believe it or not we could actually use a somewhat dry week to help out a little bit because the soil is saturated, moreso now than I can remember areawide in the past 12-18 months or so.

The tricky part with this type of flow is if there is one well placed kink in the flow it could drag down a weak front and switch our surface winds knocking back the highs a few degrees, The bottom line is that for spring lovers I do like what I see heading towards the weekend!

Have a great rest of your Sunday afternoon…

+++++++++++

I’ll be updating the blog again around 2PM today with the latest information and any changes that may or may not be needed to the forecast. Also hopefully you’ve remembered to set your clocks FORWARD one hour so that your on-time for everything today!

Well the front is moving through the metro as I type this and by the time you read this, assuming that’s after 9AM the front should be through the metro area. Ahead of the front we’re still seeing temperatures in the 50s, behind it though the temperature drops about 10 degrees in one hour and then another 5 degrees a couple of hours later, so my suspicion is that by lunchtime, if not earlier we should be in the 30s and the winds will be on the increase during the afternoon hours especially with slowly falling temperatures.

Here is the 7AM surface map showing the colder air moving into the region…

sfc

You can clearly see the colder air moving in, and this will continue all day long. The numbers in RED above are the temperatures by the way.

Now as far as the snow goes…I do think we will see some flakes, and I’ll be tracking the backside of the storm which is now producing some decent snow across the western Plains area. Here is the NWS radar from Topeka which should fill in somewhat during the course of the day.

That back edge, which as of this writing is sort of ragged looking will congeal a bit today/tonight and move closer to us.

I continue to think the best chances of accumulating snow will be across NW MO and NE KS..perhaps several inches worth north of St Joseph. For the metro, some flakes are likely and maybe a minor coating on exposed surfaces, but I’m more concerned tonight that as the temperatures fall, with damp conditions from drizzle/light patches of rain today and then maybe some snow tonight, that we could see some freezing on the pavement. The most vulnerable areas would be the exposed surfaces including the bridges and overpasses. this is something that I will update, because should we get a bit more snow overnight then the rush hour tomorrow may be dicey since all the road treatments have been washed away with the rain.

Speaking of which rainfall amounts varied through the area, some with close to 1.5″ (Pleasant Hill) while others including Downtown KC as well as Olathe and Gardner came in with about .6″ of rainfall. All welcome because since the soil is totally saturated, the runoff went right to the retaining ponds, lakes and creeks/rivers.

More coming later today with a hopeful warming trend as the week moves along.

Joe

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