Joe’s Wx Blog: Warmth then rain

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Our typical springtime weather is right around the corner for at least a few days again as temperatures will start to moderate over the next several days. That’s the good news, there is also potentially some significant rainfall heading this way as well, although the exact timing as I talked about yesterday is very much in question. What I continue to feel confident about is 1) it’s going to rain 2) it may rain a lot 3) it’s going to turn cooler again. When all those 3 things happen though is still, shall we say…up in the air.

Today we continue to be influenced by a cooler airmass that moved in a couple of days ago and is sort of trapped on top of the region. Here is a look at the 5000 foot temperatures from earlier this AM showing the extent of the chilly to cold airmass in place.

850

The tail end of that airmass across the southern Plains states is associated with a storm that continues to produce rain/sleet across S KS/OK/TX this morning. Rainfall amounts down there have been healthy for the last couple of days and this is welcome news for the drought relief that continues.

ScreenHunter_03 Apr. 03 10.46

Speaking of which, the drought down there has improved and become more patchy in nature. Some parts of the southern Plains are OK while other areas are hurting for moisture.

 

That system which is to the south of here will continue to spin away from the southern Plains states and eventually take the chilly airmass in it’s wake with it.

You can sort of see that happening with the latest NAM model run. What you’re looking at is the pressure patterns and the precipitation forecast.

 

Again for those who may not know the time scale…12Z is 7AM, 18Z is 1PM, 00Z is 7PM and 06Z is 1AM.

Again as we talk about some warmer air heading this way, let’s take you back up to 5000 feet and show you the forecasted temperatures at that level for 7PM Friday…notice the warmer yellows/reds talking hold through the Plains…highs should make it up to about 70° or so.

 

Then as we head towards the weekend, the warmth will stay with us on Saturday with highs in the 70s (although we may be fighting some clouds) then things start to get a little tricky for Sunday.

I haven’t changed many of my thoughts concerning Sunday…as a front from the north will slide into the region and push to the south of here…setting us up for at least some rain/storms.

Then the progress of the front retreating northwards would be the key to the forecast for MON/TUE of next week.

The storm in question for next week is located off the coast of AK right now. It will break up into pieces and at some point one of the stronger pieces will move into the western part of the country and then dive into the SW.

sat

The problem is that figuring out which piece of that rather strong storm that will be the new storm next week is still rather difficult and the reason the model data will not be able to resolve the exact timing of the rain next week.

Add in a retreating front as the storm forms in the SW and that creates forecast/timing headaches.

Obviously this is important because of the home opener for the Royals on Monday…it’s still too early to confidently forecast exactly what will happen on Monday but I would suspect there will be some rain in the area at some point, however; there is a reasonable chance that we may dry out for the game itself, before turning wet again at night into Tuesday. Should we get a break in the rain/clouds Monday afternoon, we still may be able to pop into the 60s…should the clouds hang tough, 50s would be about as good as we could do. It does appear that cooler air will again move back into the region on Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

That’s it for today…

Joe

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