Joe’s Wx Blog: Wet (& white?) time coming into focus

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Some good news to start the weather blog for all of us baseball fans…about 10 days ago I speculated that temperatures could be in the 60s or so for our home opener and as the big day gets closer, an hopefully after the Royals win a couple of games, the chances of that happening are continuing to increase. There has been a question of rainfall during the game and right now, while it can’t totally be ruled out, I’m becoming more confident that the game itself will be dry.

The forecast itself through continues to be a tricky one , from Sunday through the end of next week. Rain is likely in that time frame, and even, get ready for this, some wet snowflakes are possible as the storm finally moves through the region. Yes there is the possibility of some wet snowflakes as the storm brings some cold air with it and moves through the region…the timing on that appears to be sometime Wednesday or early Thursday.

Let’s talk about the weekend. As I mentioned previously a nice warm-up is coming on Saturday with highs into the mid 70s. There may be some clouds around but Saturday itself should be a dry day. Sunday a front will be dropping into the region but the latest data indicates that the front be be rather weak, which, if true, means some potential changes will be needed to the current forecast.

A weaker version of the front means that it’s ability to retreat to the north on Sunday PM/Night will be much easier. This means that instead of having a front to our south Monday, the front may retreat back into N MO on Monday, placing the KC area is a somewhat modified warm sector. Here is the forecast map for Sunday AM. The real cold front is in blue, there is some sort of wind shift line moving through that should serve as a focus for some t/storm development during the day on Sunday.

sfc

The key to the forecast will be the strength to the front and how long it takes to retreat back to the north. IF the push of colder air is stronger, then the front will have a tougher time pushing back north, meaning better rain chances into Monday. This cannot be totally discounted because should their be a lot of t/storm activity on Sunday, it may effectively push some sort of rain cooled airmass south helping to re-enforce the front itself, it sounds complicated I know, but it actually something rather common but not real predictable from several days out. Should this occur then warm air and moisture aloft will constantly over-run the strengthened boundary and contribute to more instability and lift, generating more rain/storms.

At this point my feeling is IF there will be rain the better chances will be in the AM on Monday with drying conditions in the afternoon. Should this play out, and with a more humid airmass in place, it’s possible temperatures would pop into the 60s in the PM.

One thing for sure is that forecasting the temperatures from Sunday through Thursday is going to be very tricky because of where these various boundaries set up. There will be the risk of some severe weather as well, again depending on the placement of the boundaries and the amount of heat/instability that can occur. I am increasingly confident in some severe weather in the Plains states,, but right now I’m NOT confident in the location of the worst weather.

Here is a look at the forecasted anomalies (above/below average) high temperatures off the EURO model for the next 10 days…

ScreenHunter_07 Apr

Click on that image to make it larger. You can see, especially on TUE/WED the presence of a boundary near the I-70 corridor…this would mean highs could vary between 15-25° across our viewing area. Then the cold air moves in behind the storm on THU/FRI next week before it’s moves out again next weekend.

In terms of the amounts of precipitation expected, at this point the model data suggests as low as about 1.5″ on the GFS to close to 3″ on the EURO model…some will soak in but a lot will run off. Temperatures may also drop below freezing again later next week, so if your a gardener, be aware of that potential.

Obviously a LOT can and will change as I’ve been saying all week long, and the location of the boundary (ies) will play a huge role in what happens, not only for Opening Day but also for TUE-WED of next week. When you see a thermal contrast like what I illustrated above, that creates some real forecast headaches.

Interesting note that I just saw on Twitter. Pittsburgh, PA set an ALL-TIME low temperature for the month of April…19° this AM. Previous record was 20° back in 1875.

That’s about it for today. I may try and update the blog during the afternoon based on the latest data. Have a great Thursday!

Joe

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