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Joe’s Wx Blog: Storm chances increase

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A lot of clouds have invaded the region today as expected. This AM I showed all this cloud cover heading this way and it looks like they’ll stick around for awhile and perhaps thin out a bit later this afternoon. Temperatures though have bounced back nicely after morning lows in the 40s as I type this we’re into the 70s which is pretty good given all the clouds around. We should finish the day with highs in the mid-upper 70s through the region.

While the rest of the daytime should be dry, later this evening will be a different story. Right now things are pretty dry in the atmosphere butt the 1PM surface map is showing some juicier air in SE KS with dewpoints in the upper 50s and that air should surge into the region this evening and tonight. Here is the 1PM map showing the thicker air to the south of the KC region…winds from the south will allow that air to move our way slowly today. Areas highlighted in blue are where dewpoints are at least 52° and the darker blue represents dewpoints of 60°.

In and of itself the “advection” of dewpoints won’t create the rainfall…what we need is to lift the air to get that moisture to rise and that will happen later tonight compliments of a strong low-level jetstream that will move into the region after nightfall. That is illustrated with the latest RAP short-term model showing the strong winds at about 5000 feet blowing right towards us. These winds will be in the 40-55 knot range, or 45-60 MPH…a lot of wind blowing just a few thousand feet up.

These winds will help to lift the air and rapidly create t/storms. The storms will form within about 30 minutes or so and may become numerous. Also there is the potential of some hail with these storms and gusty winds. There is the potential of some severe weather with these storms and I will be upgrading the FOX 4 Severe Weather Potential graphic to a 7.

The storms that form will be moving away before daybreak tomorrow, leaving in their wake a lot of low clouds and a thick cloud deck about 3-5000 feet thick. As a result I’m expecting gray skies for Monday and there would be the possibility of at least periods and patches of drizzle moving through. It should be more than that because above the lower clouds (above 5000 feet) the air will be dry…temperatures should be close to 70° with SSE winds of 10-20 MPH.

Then there is a question for Tuesday and our main storm system that will be moving through the Plains states. It’s a classic severe weather set-up out to our west…when a broken area of storms should consolidate into a long squall line well towards the west of the KC region. The line should move eastwards while the individual cells move towards the NE and NNE. Here is the forecast map for 7PM Tuesday. There is a good shot of cold air behind the storm and that air will be moving in on Wednesday.

tue

The higher res NAM model shows the squall line at 7PM Tuesday…near the Manhattan area

As the storm passes through, rain and colder air will move into the region on Wednesday, which is shaping up to be a miserable day, especially in the AM hours while temperatures in the PM may only be in the 40-45° range…not pretty.

Rainfall amounts out off all of this may exceed 2″ in places from tonight through Wednesday late afternoon. Keeping in mind that we’re talking t/storms, and the potential for some to do better while others don’t get as much.

In terms of severe weather, the highest chances are tonight after 8PM…and Tuesday night after 9PM…each window will be about 6 hours long. Hail and gusty winds are the main threats with the storms.

That’s it for today, I’ll be watching radar very carefully this evening for you and if need be inserting FOX 4 Warn into the screen for you as you watch FOX 4 tonight.

Joe

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