Joe’s Wx Blog: Round one done…round two ahead

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Good morning and thanks for reading the FOX 4 Weather Blog on a very spring feeling morning here in KC. It seems that we’ve turning the corner in starting to green things up, and whether or not that’s a result of the rain last night or the warmer weather for the past couple of days you can really feel it. The funny thing is Mother Nature has a rude awakening coming for us on Wednesday into Thursday which will be talked about.

Some of you will be heading to the Royals game today. Right now aside from maybe a few sprinkles or a very light shower, aside from a lot of clouds we should be in good shape with temperatures approaching 70° and south winds of 10-15 MPH. Overall compared to what it was like a week or so ago, this is welcome news. Tomorrow night’s game is a bit more iffy concerning the rain (it will still be mild) and the game on Wednesday afternoon will be miserable if not cancelled because of the higher rain threat and some real cold blustery weather expected…so today may turn into the best weather game of the week, till the weekend at least (from a comfort scale).

The rainfall was certainly welcome, and there was quite a bit of hail with the storms last night…mostly pea to penny sized although there were some quarter-sized hail reports in the Independence area earlier in the evening. The hail came down enough to cover the ground in some areas. Pretty impressive, especially with the second thin line of storms that moved in after midnight or so.

Concerning rainfall amounts…here are some graphics going from N>S through the metro area…

ScreenHunter_14 Apr. 08 08.35

ScreenHunter_15 Apr. 08 08.35

ScreenHunter_16 Apr. 08 08.36

Click on those graphics for more information. Last night was also a busy night for me on Twitter and to a lessor extent FB. Dozens of updates were provided including radar updates on the storm and the progress of the hail. Warning information was passed along as they were issued as well after the station took a lightning hit and scrambled some of our computer systems. So again this is an urgent reminder to follow my efforts on Twitter @ fox4wx. I really do enjoy twitter and the abilities it readily gives me to get the information out to you as opposed to the FB world where many-most don’t see the updates provided because of the way FB works.

While there may be some showers today and tonight, the next best chance will come tomorrow evening/night as I talked about yesterday. This will be associated with a cold front (strong but not unusual for April) that will plow through the region in the wee hours of WED AM. This front will sweep the warmth and the higher dewpoints away from the region and almost instantly replace it with colder air that will move into the region 1st thing WED AM. My feelings are that temperatures will fall rapidly WED AM then level off int he 40-45° range in the PM hours with gusty winds…miserable for sure. The front should arrive between 11PM and 4AM Wednesday.

While this will be at the surface, aloft the core of the storm will be out towards the western Plains states, which places us in a strong south flow aloft overrunning the colder air moving in at the surface. This is typically a good recipe for decent+ rainfall, so we’ll have a strong chance of storms with the front itself, then behind the front as well. Good recipe for an additional 1-2″ of rainfall for places…which combined with the rain last night means some will get close to 3″ out of this event.

Concerning the severe weather risk, typically when this happens the main risk for us is stronger winds and perhaps some hail in places. My suspicion is that will be the case again, although IF the storms fire really out to our west and have a long trek towards the KC region, the severe weather risk may be somewhat reduced. The SPC is watching this area as well.

The hi-res NAM model shows a strong to severe line of storms near Manhattan, KS-Topeka by 10PM tomorrow night then weakening somewhat as it moves into the metro towards midnight. NOT saying that will exactly play out that way, but it’s certainly possible.

Again the temperatures WED AM will drop into the 30s and we may still be 35-40° even at lunch-tiime. nasty compared to the temperatures today. Look at the forecasted temperatures for 4PM tomorrow afternoon. Notice the range through the Plains states of 70s to teens in the western Plains states…pretty impressive!

ScreenHunter_17 Apr. 08 09.02

Now take a look at Wednesday @ 1PM…you can actually “see” the storms circulation in SE IA sucking in the warm air and then behind the storm wrapping in the colder air.

ScreenHunter_18 Apr. 08 09.03

Speaking of the colder air, this is going to be a major spring time snow storm for the Rockies and the Upper Midwest. Check out what the model if forecasting for snow.

ScreenHunter_19 Apr. 08 09.06

That’s well over 12″ for a good chunk of SD.

The gang will provide more detailed information on the newscasts all day/night on FOX 4 news…thanks again for reading…keep an umbrella nearby but hopefully you won’t need it that much.

Joe

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