Joe’s Wx Blog: Bizzaro weather & Aruba

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I’m really not sure I know where to start today…so let’s start with the present. Not exactly a great Spring day in what has been. for the most part, a miserable Spring season around here. For the most part the rain has ended and while there may be a couple of leftover sprinkles out there, the atmosphere is trying to dry out…and yet it’s still very chilly for late April. Highs are supposed to be closer to 70° heading into early May, and again today we’ll be a far cry from that with highs in the 50s to near 60°. But then so what else is new for KC this season.

Rain amounts seems to be a rather uniform 4/10″ to close to 1″ out of this slow moving system with the heavier totals leaning towards areas south of the I-70 corridor while amounts on the north side seems to be around 1/3″ or so. Here is a look at doppler radar showing the rain totals…

The clouds will hang tough for most of the day, with perhaps some breaks late this afternoon or early this evening as the sun is setting.

Tomorrow though looks to be fantastic as highs should pop into the 70s with 80s possible on Monday into Tuesday. From there though we start to get a little or perhaps a lot on the weird side.

This was talked about somewhat yesterday and today the data is leaning even more strongly towards some rather unusual weather including more unseasonably cold air coming towards the Midwest…and depending on how this plays out, and granted this is still 5+ days way, there is actually the potential of some snow showing up as well…timed out for School Day @ The K of all things. Heck if you buy the GFS, there would actually be the potential of some slushy minor accumulations somewhere in the region.

I’m not going there yet, but the development of an upper level storm will be the key in all this. Right now the models certainly agree on the storm forming, but disagree wildly on the location of where it forms, although today’s data points more strongly towards the storm forming closer to the KC area.

The energy in question is still way up towards AK right now…and the problem is that the energy as it moves into the N Rockies will split up.

Exactly where and how it splits will determine the weather for later in the week. Suffice it to say some much cooler air will arrive sometime on Wednesday and keep highs well below average into Friday.

So just for giggles here is a look at the weather map for Thursday @ noon with the rain/snow line coming into the KC area…

ScreenHunter_01 Apr

You can see the evolution of this absolutely crazy solution by looking at the forecast maps off the GFS model from 500 mbs or about 18,000 feet. You can see the energy coming from the British Columbia area into the northern Rockies…then splitting.

Should this play out…highs on Thursday would only be in the 40s!  Since the storm would then get “stuck” on top of us, we’d stay unseasonably cold for several more days after that, and dare I’d say see the coldest weather (highs) for early May in KC weather history. The coldest high on record for 5/2 is 48° in 1917 and on 5/3 is 48° in 1934/54. Can this happen again? Absolutely!

It’s still too early to really get into the specifics of this, but right now my feeling is that the weather for School Day may be very problematic and very chilly for early May.

Finally I’m back from vacation. My wife and I went to Aruba for the 1st time. Aruba is located in the far southern Carribean Ocean just off the coast of South America and Venezuela.

ScreenHunter_09 Apr. 27 13.17

They are actually a desert island, it really doesn’t rain there often and they don’t really have to worry much about a direct hit from hurricanes since they are so far to the south. They will feel the effects of hurricanes however. Since 1995 3 hurricanes have come within 100 miles of the island.

We had some long travel days but were on the island for about 6 days or so. Here are some pictures of our trip.

I’m glad to be back, but boy you can get used to that warm weather!

Joe

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