Track the rain here before you head out

Joe’s Wx Blog: Rain and more rain

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It has been really coming down out there, but in a sense this rain and now rain cooled atmosphere is going to prevent our area from worrying about severe weather for the rest of the day. With that said there is a new Tornado Watch tot he SE of the KC area which does not(!) include KC but it does include Sedalia/Warrensburg and Clinton.

Regardless it sure is soggy out there. Here is a look at the doppler estimated rainfall totals since about 10:15 yesterday…through early this afternoon…

Much of the region from KC southeastwards has seen over 1-2″ of rainfall with some getting even more than that. Here is a look at some ground truth reports…first with a look at the Northland…

ScreenHunter_01 May. 30 13.13

Now lets move a little farther southwards…

ScreenHunter_02 May. 30 13.13

and now into the Southside…

ScreenHunter_03 May. 30 13.14

The rain will continue till the middle part of the afternoon when it will end, and we may see a little sunshine later today (or at least the clouds will thin out). Temperatures will struggle though and our high for the day may not occur till about 7PM or so. By the way, through yesterday we’re still running about 2° below average for the month.

sat

Flooding continues to be the main concern over the couple of days. As I focus my attention on the forecast, it’s very tricky because of all the rain that we’ve got out there now. The model data has not handled the situation well and now we need to see how the rain cooled atmosphere interacts with a developing low level jetstream later this evening. My suspicion is that after a brief lull this evening we should see rapid storm development overnight tonight into tomorrow AM. These storms would have the ability of producing some hail (quarter sized) and more torrential rainfall.

Remember a few days ago when I talked about Precipitable Water? (PW)

Take a look at the NAM forecasted (PW) for early tomorrow AM…

Nice little max area of close to 1.5″ through the atmosphere centered close to the I-70 corridor. This map is courtesy of NEXLAB and indicated to me that the storms, after they form will be heavy rain maker for sure…and since the low-level jet will continue through at least part of the AM + the winds in this low-level jet will be 40-55 MPH at times…so what convection there is might be able to bring these stronger winds to the surface, or at least try to.

So the main threats for overnight tonight is additional flooding(!) rainfall, some hail, and wind gusts of 50 MPH+

The rain tomorrow should mostly be confined tot he AM hours and as the PM comes along, the threat for heavy rain should drop for the KC area and shift off towards the SE of the metro. The risk of severe weather will follow likewise…

The good news about all this is that it should be out of here towards the weekend…it should be noted that much cooler air will be spreading in over the weekend with highs on Sunday.

Unfortunately the weather will be rougher in OK for the next couple of days, already there are Tornado Warnings out for areas north of Oklahoma City. Here is a look at the NWS radar from down there. The RED boxes represent Tornado warnings.

 

Have a great afternoon!

Joe

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