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Joe’s Wx Blog: Heat & A Front

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well the AM started with a few rumbles of thunder that caught some by surprise. Over the weekend, I mentioned that there could be a random storm this AM and sure enough there was a random storm. The model data was hinting at it but the “isolated-ness” of the storms would suggest most areas would be dry. The storms actually affected parts of the metro, almost most have had less than 1/10″ of rainfall.

The focus now is on the heat. Leftover clouds this AM may hold things back a bit for awhile today, but the clouds should thin out quickly later this AM and with the air aloft VERY warm and with winds blowing at 20-30 MPH (that will be the key to the heat today) highs should soar to 90-95° or so. Those strong winds tonight will make tonight another warm one as well with lows only in the 70s…so A/C’s will get a workout this afternoon and tonight!

Take a look at our RAP model…again as I mentioned yesterday this model tends to go overboard with the heat…especially around these parts, but look at the thoughts of close to 110° heat across the western Plains states…click on that image to make it larger!

ScreenHunter_18 Jun. 11 07.23

A cold front will be moving in tomorrow afternoon and typically we’d be worried about either thunderstorms or an outbreak of severe weather with the front as it blows into the region and interacts with the hot and humid airmass that will be on top of the region. Here is the surface map…

sfc

This map is valid for tomorrow at 1PM. The ingredients are certainly there at the surface. Dewpoints will be well into the 60s, if not 70s, temperatures at lunch tomorrow should be 85-90°…but aloft we’re going to be very “capped”. The cap refers to a layer of warm air, typically between 5000-12,000 feet aloft that prohibits warm, moist air from rising through it. Basically it’s a stable layer of air that keeps a lid on convection. If the initial cap is weak and that layer of warm air is not that warm, the cap can be overcome and you can get explosive storm development. At this point the cap tomorrow as the front comes into the area is forecast to be about as strong as we’ll see all season long, then during the afternoon as the cap starts to weaken and the air cools down at that level, the surface front has already moved to the SE of the metro, so as I mentioned yesterday things just don’t seem to be lining up for our area to get storms. We’ll need to keep an eye out for areas east and southeast of the KC region…perhaps central MO and down towards the Lakes area for some scattered storms.

I should also mention that tomorrow AM there is the possibility of storms across far N MO associated with a disturbance farther north that may be able to weaken the cap up there in spots allowing for some convection. Unless something really gets organized up there, I think we’ll stay dry here in KC tomorrow AM.

That’s a good thing because tomorrow is Summer School Day at the K starting @ 10AM. We have a lot planned for the kids and the families that come out including a science fair afterwards in lot J. All you need is a ticket to the game and the whole thing is included including the show and the fair! Who knows maybe tomorrow we’ll be trying for a sweep of the Tigers!

Right now the next decent chance of a widespread rain looks to be on Saturday night/Sunday and Monday of next week. Trying to figure out where these storm clusters will form is nearly impossible from this far out…but there are suggestions that it could be close enough to the KC area to affect us into the weekend.

That’s it for today. It’s somewhat doubtful that I’ll be able to get a blog together tomorrow (WED) due to School Day activities then me hustling to work afterwards…but maybe I can cobble something together quickly later Wednesday afternoon.

Joe

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