Joe’s Wx Blog: Cold Front Lurks

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Skies have generally cleared out across most of the area and temperatures are now responding…by the end of the afternoon we should pop into the lower 90s around the KC area…and we should stay dry for the rest of the afternoon and for KC at least, the rest of the night.

There has been a bias in the model data to overheat the highs a bit recently again, although the forecasted numbers do look a bit more reasonable today compared to yesterday when some of the data suggested highs in the mid-upper 90s…I’ve tried not to warm us up any higher than 93° on Tuesday…let’s see how that plays out.

The latest surface map shows a weak trof (dashed black line) representing a wind shift and a dewpoint change, located in the Plains states. This may serve as a focus for storm activity later today and depending on what and where the storms form, their motion would be to the SE and may approach N MO early tomorrow. Those will need to be watched in case they move a bit farther southwards…don’t be surprised tomorrow AM if we start the day with clouds as a result of blow-off from the storms.

sfc

If you remember the other day when I was talking about dewpoints, we were near 60°…now the dewpoints are in the mid-upper 60s with a few 70° dewpoints showing up…this is more indicative of typical summertime weather in the region. These south winds will continue through Tuesday so the humidity levels will stay rather ripe in the region.

The above mentioned trof will be easing our way later Tuesday into WED AM…here is the forecasted position of the trof late Tuesday.

sfc

Some storms should fire along that trof and dip towards the KC area later Tuesday night into WED AM. The GFS is the most bullish with this, in terms of rainfall potential.

Meanwhile the tropics which have been pretty quiet are slowly stirring a bit. There is a system in the Atlantic Ocean that the folks at the Tropical Prediction Center has it’s eyes on and is giving a 60% chance of becoming a tropical storm.

It’s the small swirl of clouds labeled 1. Here is a close up…

This particular wave is actually in an area of the Atlantic that doesn’t, on average, see much activity (too far south). It’s referred to as the “graveyard of the Caribbean”. We’ve already had two tropical storms this year…Andrea and Barry…should this storm get a name, it would be Chantal. Here is the list of the rest of the names that are slated for this year.

Chantal
Dorian
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Ingrid
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy

Forecasters continue to expect a rather active season out there…something that I think is noteworthy and why some forecasters are concerned about where these storms may go is that when checking out the Ocean temperatures, there is a VERY noticeable warm pool of water (compared to average) off the NE part of the country…this warm pool may help storms maintain themselves as the move off the coast of the NE, or perhaps more likely, as this warm pool of water “feeds back” into the atmosphere in the form of a ridge (or high pressure aloft) maintain a system as it moves into the SE part of the country or Gulf Of Mexico.

 

Well that’s it for today…I’ve got something to talk about tomorrow AM already…and here is a hint, it’s what the well-dressed meteorologist will be wearing this fall! More tomorrow AM on the blog.

Joe

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